Yari’s Beyond 2031 ‘Prophecy’

Former Zamfara State Governor Abdulaziz Yari knows only too well that a free, fair, and credible poll in 2027 could deliver the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) the biggest shock of its life. He may as well choose to live in self-denial, but I am certain that in his quiet moments he knows his party faces a difficult ride, provided INEC does the right thing by guaranteeing free and fair elections.

I don’t fault him for declaring that his party will rule beyond 2031. The import of that statement is that, as far as Yari is concerned, 2027 is as good as won. I don’t blame him. You don’t take on the role of campaign Director General going into an election in which voters are grappling with myriad issues – poor governance, hardship, poverty, the high cost of living, and all that – without giving your party members a false sense of victory.

Yari knows too well that his responsibility includes rousing party members and supporters. His 2031 prophecy is intended to offer reassurance. That’s all.

Beyond these assertions, there is no empirical evidence to support the claim that the party will retain power beyond 2031. On the contrary, current indicators suggest that a free and fair election in 2027 could see the APC relegated to opposition, thereby returning it to the position it held pre-2015.

How can the APC even remain in power beyond 2027 when it has failed to fulfil its major promises to the electorate and has instead pushed more citizens into poverty through its ill-thought-out policies?

 

Huge promises, poor delivery

In 2015, when the party—riding on the crest of largely manufactured anti-PDP sentiments—came to power, it promised to end corruption, retool the economy, and address insecurity. Over a decade later, none of these promises has been adequately fulfilled. There is still widespread corruption, with those close to the seat of power living extravagant lives that defy explanation. So far, the only people arrested for corruption by the nation’s anti-graft agencies are those who have fallen out with the government, are no longer in power, or are yahoo boys.

Under a party that promised to combat corruption, the country’s Corruption Perceptions Index score from Transparency International remains alarmingly low, indicating a downward trend rather than improvement. According to Transparency International’s 2025 Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI), released in February 2026, Nigeria ranked 142nd out of 182 countries, with a score of 26 out of 100.

Transparency International grades nations from 0 (highly corrupt) to 100 (very clean). Nigeria scores a dismal 26, well below the global average of 42. Paired with a global ranking as the 36th most corrupt country, these figures starkly illustrate the nation’s sharp regression under the APC.

Nothing better exemplifies the ruling APC’s stance on corruption than its presidential campaign council, which prominently included individuals accused of corruption. Despite promising to fight graft, the party appointed a woman who had been suspended from the Federal Cabinet over corruption allegations as its Women’s Mobilisation director.

Under a government that vowed to combat corruption, Nigerians are shockingly being told about the existence of fake agencies with a whole paraphernalia of government bureaucracy. Under a government that pledged to combat corruption, we have a presidential aide earning well below N5 million a month, publicly donating N300 million to a religious group, and outrightly asking for an account number to credit them, without minding the fact that the nation’s law compels banks to report cash transfers above a certain threshold.

If the government and the party have fared poorly in combating corruption, they have fared no better in insulating citizens from hardship. The government suspended the fuel subsidy, leading to an astronomical rise in fuel costs and attendant consequences for transport, school fees, rent, foodstuffs, and healthcare services, without putting in place adequate safety measures to cushion the impact on citizens.

We have a government that suspended fuel subsidy payments, resulting in a remarkable increase in government revenue, yet it still outborrows the combined borrowing of successive governments. In 2015, the nation’s debt profile was about N12.12 trillion. By 2026, it had risen by over 1,000 per cent to about N160 trillion in a little over one decade under the APC.

Nigeria is indebted to the World Bank, the African Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, China, Germany, France, India and Japan. Under the administration of the late former President Muhammadu Buhari, Nigeria’s debt rose by an additional N75.22 trillion over eight years. The Bola Tinubu administration, despite suspending the fuel subsidy, dwarfed that record by increasing the debt by N71.94 trillion in less than three years.

 

The records say it all

A closer look at the APC’s record reveals a troubling legacy. The administration borrowed heavily, leaving Nigeria with a far greater debt burden than it inherited, yet it failed to contain rising insecurity or alleviate the severe economic hardship affecting over half the population.

As you read this, 78 schoolchildren and their teacher from Borno State are still being held captive, more than 100 days after their abduction on 16 May 2026, by Boko Haram terrorists. Late last week, bandits attacked a mosque in a sleepy community in Niger State, abducting over 60 people who are still being held.

As you read this, residents of some communities in Zamfara, Sokoto, Kebbi and even Katsina states have fled their ancestral homes owing to sustained attacks by bandits. Predominantly farming communities have been denied access to their farms, and some have had to pay taxes imposed by non-state actors before they can access them.

It is clear. Nigerians are dealing with a government and ruling party that fails to protect lives and property, ignores public corruption unless it targets the opposition, and refuses to tackle deep-seated insecurity. This ongoing neglect leaves the average voter struggling to survive in a harsh reality.

So, does Yari genuinely believe none of this will matter when citizens vote next year? What makes him confident that the APC will even remain in power beyond 2027?

We have walked this path before. The PDP once boasted it would rule for 100 years. Yari’s declaration is less bold than the PDP’s earlier ambition, but the PDP’s downfall should serve as a warning to Yari and his allies.

When I think of Yari’s declaration, I see the PDP fighting to remain relevant. Two factions are vying for leadership amid conflicting court rulings. As it is for the PDP, so it will be for the APC and for any party that takes Nigerians for granted.

No Room For Thuggish Shekwolo
Kuje Area Council Chairman Samuel Danjuma Shekwolo’s threat to chase out of the area anyone who will not join or vote for the APC is belligerence pro max. It’s thuggery personified. It’s violence on an executive pedestal and must be condemned. He cannot force everyone to join the APC. He lacks the power to ask people to leave Kuje because it’s not his father’s property. When people who should not be close to power, by all means possible, are unfortunately given access to power, you know what to expect. Shekwolo needs to be arrested and prosecuted for what is clearly a call to violence and a direct attack on freedom of association and personal liberty.

By Muazu Elazeh