Governor of Lagos State, Mr. Babatunde Fashola on Wednesday proposed a budget of N489.690bn for the year 2014 before members of the State House of Assembly.
The budget proposal, which he described as zero-deficit, is made of Recurrent Expenditure at N234.665bn and Capital Expenditure at N255.025bn with a Capital to Recurrent ratio at 52:48 as against 58:42 in Year 2013. According to Fashola, this is a budget of consolidation.“As I promised last year about reducing our deficit, a zero deficit financing requirement is proposed for Y2014,” he said, adding that General Public Service takes N100,215,966,990bn or 20.47 per cent, Public Order and Safety takes N17,977,368,027bn or 3.67 per cent, Economic Affairs takes N160,046,436,169bn or 32.68 per cent, Environmental Protection takes N39,727,711,248bn or 8.11 per cent, Housing and Community Amenities takes N50,537,201,984bn or 10.32 per cent.
Also, Health takes N37,812,553,057bn or 7.72 per cent; Recreation, Culture and Religion takes N3,482,081,806bn or 0.71 per cent billion, Education takes N77,423,827,872bn or 15.81 per cent, and Social Protection takes N2,466,309,939bn or 0.50 per cent.Delivering the budget presentation speech at the chambers of the Assembly, Fashola said that every time he has had the privilege to present a budget for the State, he did so with a lot of pleasure and with a deep sense of responsibility for the expectations that the budget raises for the people that things will get better.
“Year after year, we have met those expectations and things have got better. That feeling of pleasure and the sense of responsibility is no less different today as I present our budget proposals for 2014,” he said.
“As far as responsibility goes, it is incumbent upon me to report how far we have implemented the 2013 budget as proof, if one is needed, that budgets are important for us, and that we do our best to keep the promises that we make.
“Many will recall that we were the first Government at any level to begin the quarterly reporting of budget performances in this democratic dispensation and this year has not been an exception since we started the practice in 2007.
In the first quarter of this year, I reported a budget performance of 61 per cent, while the second quarter performance was 83 per cent and the recently reported third quarter performance was 70 per cent giving us a cumulative aggregate performance of 71 per cent.”
He expressed the commitment of the government to improving upon the fourth quarter performance and ultimately the total year 2013 budget performance, but gave explanations on why the performances he just reported were not exceeded.“Let me start by saying emphatically, that budget implementation in Lagos is no longer a matter of capacity. We have a highly resourceful and well-motivated workforce in the public service; budget implementation is constrained by the limitation of financial resources. As our population continues to grow, the provisions that we require to support them and meet their expectations are also growing. Regrettably, the financial resources are not growing at the rate of our people’s expectations.
“While I salute those who pay their taxes and whose contributions have helped to continuously develop our state by taking our destiny in our hands, I urge those who are yet to start paying to do so. It is a commonwealth that gives everybody a chance to realize their aspirations. It requires a common contribution to make it sustainable. While our tax contributions have helped to reduce our dependence on the Federal Government monthly FAAC remittance, to about 35 per cent of our financial needs, that 35 per cent is still critical. The recent inefficiencies that States have experienced in the process of Federal Government agencies accounting for revenues and the consequent delays in remittances owing to disputes over accounts have affected all States in different degrees.
“While salaries were delayed in other states; happily, that did not happen here, but the effect was felt in a slight reduction of our third quarter budget performance. This state of affairs, of delays in the discharge by Federal Government agencies of their responsibilities compels me to make a comment about the recent announcement by the Federal Government that a $200m World Bank loan had been approved for Lagos to fund capital projects such as the Light Rail, Adiyan Water Works and so on.
“While I thank them for finally giving the approval, it is instructive to contextualize the timing of the approval. You might all recall that in 2010 when I presented the year 2011 budget, I announced that we had negotiated a World Bank loan for $600m to fund a three-year medium term expenditure framework for years 2011, 2012 and 2013 which required Federal Government approval.
“Although the approval for the loan was given then and the year 2011 first tranche for $200m was released in that year, the year 2012 and 2013 tranches were frustrated by Federal Government agencies. It is the year 2012 component and year 2013 component that is now being approved in the last quarter of 2013.
In truth and in fact, our state’s development was held up and slowed down for two years.“Progress on the Rail was held back, supply of additional 70 million gallons from Adiyan Water Works was slowed down, progress on Lagos Badagry Expressway was slowed down. Improvement in the quality of life of Lagosians was slowed down. But we did not sit idly by and moan. We are the Centre of Excellence. Our tax payers’ contributions were our inspiration. We went to the financial market to raise money, knowing that our state is solvent. So the projects such as Lagos Rail, Adiyan Water Works have started and the Lagos-Badagry Road progresses, even though the approval is just coming.”
Fashola lamented that the state has had to borrow money at shorter tenures of seven years and higher interest rates of 17 per cent and 14 per cent, instead of 1 per cent and 40-year tenure, which the delayed World Bank loan offered.
“But nevertheless, our spirits are high, the high interest costs notwithstanding; I am pleased to report progress on these construction sites which provides employment for 1000 workers on the rail project and 500 workers at Adiyan Water Works. The promise of reliable rail transport system for Lagos and an additional 70 million gallons per day of water when Adiyan is completed makes it all worthwhile.
‘Ti eni be igu loju. Igi ma ru we’.“As if all these were not enough, FERMA, another Federal Government agency, is threatening to start collecting fuel levies, which is a matter within the residual revenue authority of the state. As I have said before, we will resist this incursion by taking legal action to stop the desecration of our fiscal federalist principles.
“Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, in spite of the slowdown, whether by commission or omission, I am pleased to report that ‘Eko o ni baje!’ Our dear state is making progress on all fronts. Except for our cynical opponents who need ‘jigi Bola’ to see the progress, the overwhelming consensus within the state, outside the state and all over the world, is that Lagos is working. Our commitment to Power, Agriculture, Transportation and Housing is manifesting incredible results.
“We have just commissioned the 10mw Alausa Power Plant, which I promised in my budget speech last year. In the aftermath, we have de-commissioned over 120 generators and our secretariat is now on its own dedicated electricity power, run on clean gas fuel. It is the first government secretariat that I know of in our country that has its own dedicated IPP. We have also extended street lighting earlier in the year to Ikorodu Road from Jibowu to Anthony, as we have done across Lagos including 12 streets in Alimosho, and on Carter Bridge to mention a few.
“In total, we have now provided about 70km of street lighting across Lagos, to improve safety and stimulate our night economy.
We have dedicated the month of October as our Energy Month, during which we have commenced an energy saving initiative and just yesterday we flagged off a clean cooking energy initiative of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) to reduce wood cutting.“We are in the process of converting the remaining functional generators to LPG fired generators, which will save us 50 per cent in fuel costs. Pole by pole, IPP by IPP with Lekki and Ikeja GRA IPPs to come next year, we are committed to lighting up Lagos. In the area of Agriculture, we are gradually inching towards our objective of improving on food security. The governor of Ogun State graciously approved land for us pursuant to my request as I promised in 2011.
Although I told you that our rice cultivation moved from 20 hectares to 250 hectares and that we were targeting 500-hectare cultivation, I am pleased to report that we are now cultivating 850 hectares of rice and we are milling at our Imota Rice Mill.“From our farm in Araga, in Epe, we are now producing 150,000 eggs per day, translating to over 50 million eggs a year. Our fish and poultry farming programmes are empowering young and old farmers and agriculture has become a business as well as a strategic security initiative in our state. We are determined to also improve the quality of nutrition available to our citizens especially beef. Accordingly, the Ministry of Agriculture is acting appropriately to restore best practices to cattle rearing, slaughter and processing, including the sanctioning of operators of illegal abattoirs. We are not only enforcing, we are also training. This is why we sponsored 35 cattle dealers and butchers in Oko-Oba Abattoir on a training excursion to Kenya and Bostwana to sensitize them about the vision for cattle and beef production standards that we think our citizens deserve.
“As we embrace these standards, things can only get safer, businesses can only get stronger and opportunities will certainly expand for jobs and jobs seekers, if we move from sub-optimal practices to global best practices. As we deal with increasing capacity in the production of carbohydrates sources such as rice and cassava, and protein sources such as fish, poultry and beef, fruit and vegetable production are also increasing within the State in Araga Epe and from our farm in Osun state.”According to the governor, Lagos is also providing ready sales outlets and guaranteed market in farmers marts, which first started in Alausa and has now extended to Ajah and Surulere with a further three coming up in Shomolu, Ikorodu and LASU. He added that public transportation, the state’s biggest challenge, is by many parameters one of our biggest successes, as the history of the world shows that many cities and states often address one major transport solution at a time.
“The Boston Road Tunnel, the Mumbai Mono-Rail and the Madrid Bypass Calle 30 are examples of transport solutions individually undertaken in cities.
In this area, our state has set an unprecedented record of five simultaneous transport solutions undertaken by one government, from the 40.5km Lekki-Eti-Osa Epe Expressway, to the 61km Lagos Badagry Expressway, the 13.5km Mile 12-Ikorodu Expressway, the 27km Okokomaiko-Marina Lagos Blue Line Light Rail; to the ferry terminals in Ipakodo, Osborne, Badore, Mile 2-Ebute Ojo, it is obvious that your government has its hands full and remains committed to developing first class multi-modal transport solutions befitting of the economic and financial capital of West Africa. In the area of traffic management, about 2,406 personnel of LASTMA have been in intensive training for almost one year, and have written competence examinations and they are now set to graduate with a new ethos to traffic management.“Junction by junction, the number of traffic light installations are increasing and kilometer by kilometer, lane marking and traffic signs are appearing on our roads to make motoring a safer experience. We are encouraged that these solutions are working because of the feedback we get from citizens. On Friday 25th October 2013 a citizen sent me a text message saying: ‘The traffic light at Ojuelegba has been adjusted. No more hold up.’ As far as road repairs are concerned, the Public Works Corporation is building three new asphalt plants in Ojodu Berger, Ikorodu and Ajido Badagry to increase the speed of response to repair potholes; and the Ministry of Works is currently executing over 200 inner city road projects, which I promised in my budget speech last year.”
While he stated that it is impossible to list all the roads in the address, it was important to mention completed or ongoing works, such as:
Ago Palace Way in Okota
Salabiu Olanrewaju in Epe
Ado Kekere in Ajah Badore
Medical Road/Kodeshoh in Ikeja
Igi Olugbin in Somolu
Adetola Road in AgudaSinari Daranijo Street in Victoria Island
Glover Road in IkoyiIsaac John/John Ogunnaike in Ikeja
Balogun Amodu/Alhaji Dodoyowa in Ejirin Epe
Awolumate/Oguntande Street in Ifako Ijaiye
Showonuola Street in Agege
Akinola/Victor Fagbemi/Kollington/Imulokanle in Alimosho
Okusanya/Kufeji/Idowu Williams/Olaniyi at Ifako Ijaiye
Roundabout to Moshalashi/Ipaja/Ayobo Road in Alimosho
Bamgbose/Lewis, Alakoro, Marina/Kosoko Roads in Lagos Island
Orile Ilasan/Iroko Awe Road in Eti Osa
Continuing, the governor said: “In addition to these, there are bridge works in Ajao Estate, Agiliti, Tedi and Ijegun which are at different stages of construction and making progress towards completion. I have also recently approved the commencement of another 25 roads and as these roads and bridges are being completed, we expect to see improved connectivity and improved journey times.
Happily, the Lagos Traffic radio continues to remain the City’s favourite source of advance traffic information, while the Lekki-Link Bridge has achieved its iconic design purpose by becoming a favoured destination for residents and visitors alike and in the same vein is successfully performing its travel time reduction objective.“In response to public appeal, and after extensive consultations, our party the APC and our government have acquired the concession rights to the Lekki-Eti-Osa Expressway with the approval of the House of Assembly and plans are underway to complete the due diligence and takeover of the assets and to complete the road.
I am also happy to report that one year after its implementation, the Traffic Law has recorded huge successes in its life and property saving objectives.
Traffic accidents have reduced from 646 reported accidents in August 2012 to 118 reported accidents in July 2013, and deaths from motorcycle accidents have reduced from an average of 12 per month to one per month and indeed no deaths were recorded in August, September, and October.“We are concluding plans to implement the next phase of the Law, and we have been working with the Transport Unions to sensitize them. But before I move to housing; a little but serious word must be said about the Traffic Law.
Let me reiterate that out of over 10,000 roads in Lagos, the law restricted motorcycles from plying only 475, which are highways, if such motorcycles were not up to the 200 cc capacity. The law also provided that in the over 9,000 roads where there is no restriction, the riders must wear safety helmets and not carry more than one passenger.“While I must commend the operators for largely complying, I cannot say the same for a few law enforcement agents and few military personnel who have either turned enforcement into an extortionist exercise for money or have seen themselves as above the law by violating our traffic laws and BRT Laws. Let me say to them clearly, that it is bad enough if law enforcement personnel violate the laws they are constitutionally paid to enforce; it is the height of impunity if they do so in uniform. That uniform is the symbol of the authority of the state and it is funded from tax payers’ money. I have news for those bad eggs who give law enforcement a bad name in this country. We will bring you to justice and make examples of you; before you bring dishonour to these timeless institutions that have produced officers and true gentlemen.
“In the area of housing, I will not take more time than is necessary. I will only state that the LagosHoms programme is on course. Many of our housing units are making progress on 15 different construction sites, employing a total of 7,757workers, in Shitta, Gbagada, Ajara, Ilupeju, Sangotedo, Igbogbo, Mushin, and Omole to mention a few. At least 3,192 housing units will be added in the first quarter of 2014 to the already completed 1092 units.
“We intend to commence more developments to ensure that there is no shortage of supply once we start the allocation process. Apart from Power, Agriculture, Transport and Housing, we have not relented in other sectors. Our commitment to improving on the successes we have made in the area of security remains at an all-time high. We are consistently breaking up criminal gangs, arresting their members, recovering illegal arms and effecting seizures of hard drugs.”
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The Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), Ola Olukoyede, has offered whistleblowers between 2.5 per cent and 5 per cent of recovered stolen Nigerian assets held abroad for information that leads to their recovery.
Olukoyede disclosed this on Wednesday while delivering a lecture at the Cambridge International Symposium on Economic Crime in the United Kingdom.
According to him, the ability of EFCC operatives to trace assets, cooperation from the judiciary and access to credible intelligence have played important roles in the commission’s success in securing non-conviction-based forfeiture orders.
He also described the EFCC as having some of the best investigators in the world and stressed the importance of protecting and encouraging whistleblowers.
He said anyone with credible information about stolen Nigerian assets taken or hidden anywhere in the world could receive between 2.5 per cent and 5 per cent of the recovered assets as an incentive, with payment made after the recovery.
Olukoyede further revealed that the EFCC had forfeited cash and assets worth more than $500 million to the Federal Government within the past three years.
He cited several cases involving the recovery and forfeiture of assets, including cases linked to a former Chairman of the Central Bank of Nigeria and a former Attorney-General of the Federation.
The EFCC chairman explained that the commission is legally empowered to seek the forfeiture of suspected proceeds of crime by applying to the High Court for an order. He said the process is similar to procedures used in countries such as Australia and Canada.
Olukoyede also recalled a case involving an aircraft allegedly acquired by an individual who was accused of receiving about $30 million in bribes in connection with a power project. He said the aircraft was forfeited about three months ago and had subsequently been added to the presidential air fleet.
He also referred to a property containing about 753 housing units that was forfeited from a former CBN governor, against whom the EFCC has filed criminal charges in three courts.
Speaking about the immediate past Attorney-General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, Olukoyede said the EFCC opened an investigation following allegations of abuse of office. He claimed that investigators traced about 57 properties to Malami and that approximately 48 of them had been forfeited.
The EFCC chairman further mentioned the forfeiture of a private university allegedly linked to a director in the Federal Ministry of Health. According to him, the official voluntarily surrendered the property following the commission’s investigation.
Olukoyede said the measures demonstrate the importance of asset tracing, international cooperation, credible intelligence and whistleblower protection in the fight against financial crime and the recovery of stolen public assets.
The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has raised concerns over the growing volume of imported petrol entering Nigeria, warning that it could be forced to export more of its own production if the trend continues.
The refinery said imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) made up roughly 43 per cent of the petrol supplied to the Nigerian market in July. It argued that the development was creating serious difficulties for a domestic refinery with the capacity to produce enough fuel for the country.
Dangote Refinery explained that it has maintained sizeable petrol reserves since commencing operations to ensure that consumers across Nigeria have access to a reliable supply. Keeping those reserves, it noted, requires substantial expenditure on storage, transportation and working capital.
However, the refinery said the continued granting of import licences without adequate information about expected import volumes has made it increasingly difficult to determine how much petrol should be produced and stored for the local market.
The company said holding large quantities of petrol becomes financially burdensome when there is no certainty about how much imported fuel will compete for the same market. It therefore considers exporting surplus stocks a more commercially viable option than allowing them to remain in storage indefinitely.
According to the refinery, increased exports in recent months should not be interpreted as evidence that Nigeria lacks sufficient refining capacity. Instead, the exports are being driven by excess stock resulting from unpredictable import volumes.
Dangote Refinery maintained that it remains fully committed to supplying the Nigerian market and has the capacity to meet or surpass the country's petrol requirements. It said its decision to export surplus products was aimed at managing inventory efficiently and avoiding unnecessary storage and financing expenses.
The refinery also warned that market disruptions caused by excessive imports could make it harder for domestic refiners to accurately predict demand. Any resulting supply problems, it said, should not automatically be blamed on local refineries.
It urged regulators and other industry stakeholders to improve transparency around petrol imports and strengthen coordination within the downstream petroleum market.
The company argued that policies that give greater support to domestic refining would help Nigeria reduce its dependence on imported fuel, conserve foreign exchange, strengthen energy security and maximise the economic benefits of investments in local refining infrastructure.
Dangote Refinery said it remains prepared to supply the country but stressed that a more predictable and transparent market environment is necessary for efficient production and inventory management.
Business
In The Spotlight
A group of heartless carpetbaggers have captured the Nigerian state, and it appears that they, their biological and political descendants, will hold the levers of government and access to Nigeria’s commonwealth for a long time to come.
When you consider news reports of how previous and current state actors steal public funds, buy choice properties in the toniest districts of Nigeria’s major cities, acquire private jets, and even establish private universities, you wonder if some people have more than two heads, to adopt a Yoruba phrase.
Either because of an inability to deliver the greatest good to the greatest number of Nigerian citizens, or by intention, the political elite have kept the people poor, causing them to depend on the largeness of heart of the same elite to meet their existential needs.
That explains why poor, downtrodden, and unconnected Nigerians eagerly collect crumbs of measly N5,000, rice, gari and whatever else the politicians offer to obtain their election votes or acquiescence after rigging the elections.
When watching an economically disadvantaged individual tell a politician who is seeking to become a legislator the good news that his wife just had a new baby, and he needed to prepare for the naming ceremony, it felt like the oppressed poor were enabling his oppressor to further oppress him.
It was like the classic case of Stockholm syndrome, of victims collaborating with their “captors” to cement the oppressive stranglehold that they already had over the state and the commonwealth of the nation, thus unwittingly arresting their own future development.
A running mate to a former governorship candidate in a Southwestern state hilariously regaled Nigerians with the story of how constituents would have raided all the alcoholic drinks in his refrigerator in the early hours of the morning, even before he woke from the hectic campaign tour of the previous day.
The political elite have practically cornered the Nigerian state for themselves, children, tribesmen and acolytes, and have devised a way to admit only those that they have found to be loyal, or pliable, into their rank of oppressors.
The oppression of the citizens of Nigeria is easily accomplished because of the high illiteracy level amongst the poor masses. The use of the weapon of illiteracy is more evident in Northern Nigeria, whose political leaders somehow turn a blind eye to the illiteracy and underdevelopment of their people.
In 2024, UNICEF revealed that out of Nigeria’s 18.3 million out-of-school children, about 12.1 million, or 66 per cent, were resident in the Northwest and Northeast regions. Yet, instead of expanding educational facilities and opportunities, some Northern governors are arranging mass weddings for children who are hardly out of their teen years.
And this is not to deny the weaponisation of illiteracy even in Obafemi Awolowo’s Western Region, which is regarded as the Athens of Nigeria, after its pre-Independence head start of free, universal and compulsory primary school education.
As if he had a premonition that Nigeria’s so-called democrats would eventually compromise education, to the detriment of the lowest and marginalised masses, that Karl Marx described as the “lumpen proletariat”, French political thinker Montesquieu argued a long time ago that “It is in a republican government that the whole power of education is required.”
Western Nigeria’s free education scheme was gradually abandoned from the days of the Second Republic when some Yoruba members of President Shehu Shagari’s political party knocked it off its bottom with the argument that “qualitative” education was better than “free” education.
It is more than a shame that a free, universal and compulsory primary school education scheme was abandoned under President Shagari, who not only was a trained teacher, but had a career as a teacher before his political career.
Awolowo had warned Nigeria’s political elite with the following quip: “The children of the poor that you failed to educate will not let your children sleep peacefully.” The insecurity that currently occurs in nearly every part of Nigeria only drives Awolowo’s point home.
Probably the realm of the Nigerian republic that has been most complicit with the carpetbagger political elite is the media, whose members either serve the elites as press secretaries who kill media brushfires, or editors who either run planted stories, or spike stories that the politicians do not want published.
The media is so compromised that it can hardly perform those responsibilities assigned to it by Section 22 of the Nigerian Constitution, which are to “be free to uphold the fundamental objectives contained in (Chapter II of the Constitution) and uphold the responsibility and accountability of the Government to the people.”
Some apologists have argued on behalf of the media that the political elite have so run the economy aground that the media, which can only thrive as commercial enterprises within Nigeria’s quasi-capitalist economy, cannot stay afloat, especially with the devastating inroads that the digital media are making into their audience, advertising revenue and profit.
The absence of regional economies, the argument goes, prevents the emergence of regional newspapers that can thrive on advertising revenues from regional companies, the way it obtains in the economies of North America and Western Europe. Many Nigerian newspapers, that are essentially regional, often pretend to be national to receive advertising revenue from companies whose market is national.
Two other collaborators of the political elite are the election management agencies and the judiciary at both the national and sub-national levels of government. The conspiracy between these agencies and the political elite is almost like that of Siamese twins conjoined by the belly button.
After the election management agencies may have deliberately bungled (especially) governorship and legislative house elections, and declared false reports, the losers, who felt that they won the election, would then approach the temple of justice, with significant financial inducement to ask for justice(?).
From that point on, the justice that both contestants hope to corruptly obtain could swing according to the heft of the naira in the Ghana-must-go bag that they will be hauling into the chambers of the denizens of the corrupted judiciary.
Thus, the “award” of electoral justice is “a matter of cash”, to quote Basi, the protagonist of “Basi & Co”, the television sitcom produced by environmental activist Ken Saro-Wiwa, who himself was denied justice from the judiciary that served the regime of General Sani Abacha, Nigeria’s most notorious military dictator.
In Nigeria, the lines of separation of powers that demarcate the duties of the three arms of government –the legislative, executive and judiciary– and the checks and balances that empower each arm to check the others have become almost irredeemably blurred.
As legislators use constituency projects as a ploy to carry out the functions of the executive, the president issues executive orders that are essentially legislative in nature. Though the judiciary does not perform the duties of the other arms, it fails to check them as it indulgently winks at their excesses.
If those who are regarded as Nigeria’s political elite really know what is in their enlightened self-interest and would like to protect the future of their descendants from what Thomas Hobbes described as a short, brutish and nasty existence, they will use their current privilege to correct the evil they have done to Nigerians.
They must urgently redeem the future before it delivers violence against their children.
By Lekan Sote
In The Spotlight
Lagos alone is worth more than Botswana, Namibia, Rwanda and Mauritius combined.
Let that sink in.
With an economy of N41.17tn — about $102bn in 2021 — Lagos State dwarfed the entire gross domestic products of four countries. Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Bayelsa sit on oil wealth that funds nations. Ogun, Anambra and Imo churn out goods, services and commerce that would make small economies jealous.
By the numbers, Nigeria’s states are giants.
But walk the streets of Lagos, and you will still find mothers cooking with firewood. Drive through Port Harcourt, and you will see communities drinking water polluted by the same oil that makes the state’s GDP glow. Visit Umuahia, Abeokuta, or Minna and ask the average trader what “trillion-naira economy” means to her dinner table.
The answer is: nothing.
That viral video telling you “10 Nigerian states are richer than countries” is both true and a lie. True, because the 2021 BudgIT figures don’t lie — Lagos at N41.17trn, Rivers at N7.96trn, and so on. A lie, because those numbers are GDP, not prosperity. They measure how much economic activity happens _in_ a place, not how much of it reaches the people who live there.
A country with $7,778 GDP per capita, like Botswana, will still feed its citizens better than a state with $102bn in total output but $2,058 per capita, like Nigeria. A state can host a port, an oil rig, and a tech hub, yet fail to build a hospital that works.
So, the real question isn’t “Which state is bigger than which country?”
The real question, and the one our governors should lose sleep over, is this: When your economy is bigger than a nation, why are your people still living like they have nothing?
In this edition of The Bottomline, we follow the money from GDP to the gutter — and ask why Nigeria’s trillion-naira states have not become trillion-naira lives.
The viral numbers are not new. They were lifted straight from BudgIT’s 2022 State of States report and reflected 2021 estimates: Lagos at N41.17tn, followed by Rivers at N7.96tn, Akwa Ibom at N7.77tn, Imo at N7.68tn, Delta at N6.19tn, Anambra at N5.14tn, Ondo at N5.10tn, Ogun at N5.03tn, Bayelsa at N4.63tn and Niger at N4.58tn.
The trick is in the timing. To pitch those 2021 figures against 2025 country GDPs is statistical fraud. Nigeria has since rebased. The NBS moved the base year from 2010 to 2019, and the whole map shifted. Lagos itself has moved on: its 2025 _Lagos Economic Development Update_ puts the state at N43.06tn in 2023, with forecasts of N54.77tn for 2024 and N66.47tn for 2025. Those are projections, not fresh NBS post-rebasing observations, but they tell you the direction: up.
There is no debate that Lagos is Nigeria’s economic engine. From a colonial port to federal capital until 1991, it never lost momentum. Today, trade, manufacturing, ports, telecoms, tech, entertainment, real estate and finance all cluster in just 3,345 square kilometres. Compare that footprint to Botswana’s 581,730 sq km, Namibia’s 825,615 sq km, Rwanda’s 26,338 sq km, and Mauritius’ 2,040 sq km. Yet in 2021, Lagos’ $102 billion economy was several times larger than Botswana’s $19.9bn, Namibia’s $15.1bn, Rwanda’s $16.4bn, and Mauritius’ $16.2bn, according to 2025 World Bank figures.
That comparison is legitimate. The conclusion people draw from it is not.
GDP tells you how much value was produced in a territory. It does not tell you who owns it, who earns it, or whether the roads work, the lights stay on, or the hospital has drugs.
A state can run a trillion-naira economy and still have mothers boiling water on firewood. A country can have a smaller GDP and deliver a better life. Look at the per capita numbers: Botswana at $7,778, Namibia at $5,309, Mauritius at $11,819. Nigeria sits at about $2,058. Even Rwanda, at just $773 per capita, has pushed its $3-a-day poverty rate down to 38.6 per cent — proof that size is not destiny.
The oil states expose the fraud most brutally. Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Delta and Bayelsa rank high because petroleum inflates their GDP. But oil wealth does not flow into state coffers in equal measure, and it certainly does not flow into household wallets. BudgIT’s own fiscal sustainability index proves this. In 2022, Rivers topped overall fiscal performance despite Lagos having the biggest economy. A big economy without revenue discipline, jobs, and services is just a billboard.
Nigeria does not have a GDP problem. We have a translation problem.
We have pockets of enormous economic power. Lagos. Rivers. Akwa Ibom. Ogun. Anambra. Delta. The output is real. What is missing is the bridge between that output and ordinary life.
Until economic activity creates real jobs, until IGR rises and addiction to federal allocation falls, until infrastructure supports production instead of strangling it, those trillion-naira figures will remain a cruel joke.
So let the video go viral. Let Lagos be “bigger than Botswana”.
But governors, commissioners, and citizens should ask only one question:
If my state can outproduce a country, why can’t it out-deliver a decent life for the people who call it home?
Until we answer that, we are not rich. We are just big.
By Raphael Mbamalu