Governor of Lagos State, Mr. Babatunde Fashola on Wednesday proposed a budget of N489.690bn for the year 2014 before members of the State House of Assembly.
The budget proposal, which he described as zero-deficit, is made of Recurrent Expenditure at N234.665bn and Capital Expenditure at N255.025bn with a Capital to Recurrent ratio at 52:48 as against 58:42 in Year 2013. According to Fashola, this is a budget of consolidation.“As I promised last year about reducing our deficit, a zero deficit financing requirement is proposed for Y2014,” he said, adding that General Public Service takes N100,215,966,990bn or 20.47 per cent, Public Order and Safety takes N17,977,368,027bn or 3.67 per cent, Economic Affairs takes N160,046,436,169bn or 32.68 per cent, Environmental Protection takes N39,727,711,248bn or 8.11 per cent, Housing and Community Amenities takes N50,537,201,984bn or 10.32 per cent.
Also, Health takes N37,812,553,057bn or 7.72 per cent; Recreation, Culture and Religion takes N3,482,081,806bn or 0.71 per cent billion, Education takes N77,423,827,872bn or 15.81 per cent, and Social Protection takes N2,466,309,939bn or 0.50 per cent.Delivering the budget presentation speech at the chambers of the Assembly, Fashola said that every time he has had the privilege to present a budget for the State, he did so with a lot of pleasure and with a deep sense of responsibility for the expectations that the budget raises for the people that things will get better.
“Year after year, we have met those expectations and things have got better. That feeling of pleasure and the sense of responsibility is no less different today as I present our budget proposals for 2014,” he said.
“As far as responsibility goes, it is incumbent upon me to report how far we have implemented the 2013 budget as proof, if one is needed, that budgets are important for us, and that we do our best to keep the promises that we make.
“Many will recall that we were the first Government at any level to begin the quarterly reporting of budget performances in this democratic dispensation and this year has not been an exception since we started the practice in 2007.
In the first quarter of this year, I reported a budget performance of 61 per cent, while the second quarter performance was 83 per cent and the recently reported third quarter performance was 70 per cent giving us a cumulative aggregate performance of 71 per cent.”
He expressed the commitment of the government to improving upon the fourth quarter performance and ultimately the total year 2013 budget performance, but gave explanations on why the performances he just reported were not exceeded.“Let me start by saying emphatically, that budget implementation in Lagos is no longer a matter of capacity. We have a highly resourceful and well-motivated workforce in the public service; budget implementation is constrained by the limitation of financial resources. As our population continues to grow, the provisions that we require to support them and meet their expectations are also growing. Regrettably, the financial resources are not growing at the rate of our people’s expectations.
“While I salute those who pay their taxes and whose contributions have helped to continuously develop our state by taking our destiny in our hands, I urge those who are yet to start paying to do so. It is a commonwealth that gives everybody a chance to realize their aspirations. It requires a common contribution to make it sustainable. While our tax contributions have helped to reduce our dependence on the Federal Government monthly FAAC remittance, to about 35 per cent of our financial needs, that 35 per cent is still critical. The recent inefficiencies that States have experienced in the process of Federal Government agencies accounting for revenues and the consequent delays in remittances owing to disputes over accounts have affected all States in different degrees.
“While salaries were delayed in other states; happily, that did not happen here, but the effect was felt in a slight reduction of our third quarter budget performance. This state of affairs, of delays in the discharge by Federal Government agencies of their responsibilities compels me to make a comment about the recent announcement by the Federal Government that a $200m World Bank loan had been approved for Lagos to fund capital projects such as the Light Rail, Adiyan Water Works and so on.
“While I thank them for finally giving the approval, it is instructive to contextualize the timing of the approval. You might all recall that in 2010 when I presented the year 2011 budget, I announced that we had negotiated a World Bank loan for $600m to fund a three-year medium term expenditure framework for years 2011, 2012 and 2013 which required Federal Government approval.
“Although the approval for the loan was given then and the year 2011 first tranche for $200m was released in that year, the year 2012 and 2013 tranches were frustrated by Federal Government agencies. It is the year 2012 component and year 2013 component that is now being approved in the last quarter of 2013.
In truth and in fact, our state’s development was held up and slowed down for two years.“Progress on the Rail was held back, supply of additional 70 million gallons from Adiyan Water Works was slowed down, progress on Lagos Badagry Expressway was slowed down. Improvement in the quality of life of Lagosians was slowed down. But we did not sit idly by and moan. We are the Centre of Excellence. Our tax payers’ contributions were our inspiration. We went to the financial market to raise money, knowing that our state is solvent. So the projects such as Lagos Rail, Adiyan Water Works have started and the Lagos-Badagry Road progresses, even though the approval is just coming.”
Fashola lamented that the state has had to borrow money at shorter tenures of seven years and higher interest rates of 17 per cent and 14 per cent, instead of 1 per cent and 40-year tenure, which the delayed World Bank loan offered.
“But nevertheless, our spirits are high, the high interest costs notwithstanding; I am pleased to report progress on these construction sites which provides employment for 1000 workers on the rail project and 500 workers at Adiyan Water Works. The promise of reliable rail transport system for Lagos and an additional 70 million gallons per day of water when Adiyan is completed makes it all worthwhile.
‘Ti eni be igu loju. Igi ma ru we’.“As if all these were not enough, FERMA, another Federal Government agency, is threatening to start collecting fuel levies, which is a matter within the residual revenue authority of the state. As I have said before, we will resist this incursion by taking legal action to stop the desecration of our fiscal federalist principles.
“Distinguished ladies and gentlemen, in spite of the slowdown, whether by commission or omission, I am pleased to report that ‘Eko o ni baje!’ Our dear state is making progress on all fronts. Except for our cynical opponents who need ‘jigi Bola’ to see the progress, the overwhelming consensus within the state, outside the state and all over the world, is that Lagos is working. Our commitment to Power, Agriculture, Transportation and Housing is manifesting incredible results.
“We have just commissioned the 10mw Alausa Power Plant, which I promised in my budget speech last year. In the aftermath, we have de-commissioned over 120 generators and our secretariat is now on its own dedicated electricity power, run on clean gas fuel. It is the first government secretariat that I know of in our country that has its own dedicated IPP. We have also extended street lighting earlier in the year to Ikorodu Road from Jibowu to Anthony, as we have done across Lagos including 12 streets in Alimosho, and on Carter Bridge to mention a few.
“In total, we have now provided about 70km of street lighting across Lagos, to improve safety and stimulate our night economy.
We have dedicated the month of October as our Energy Month, during which we have commenced an energy saving initiative and just yesterday we flagged off a clean cooking energy initiative of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) to reduce wood cutting.“We are in the process of converting the remaining functional generators to LPG fired generators, which will save us 50 per cent in fuel costs. Pole by pole, IPP by IPP with Lekki and Ikeja GRA IPPs to come next year, we are committed to lighting up Lagos. In the area of Agriculture, we are gradually inching towards our objective of improving on food security. The governor of Ogun State graciously approved land for us pursuant to my request as I promised in 2011.
Although I told you that our rice cultivation moved from 20 hectares to 250 hectares and that we were targeting 500-hectare cultivation, I am pleased to report that we are now cultivating 850 hectares of rice and we are milling at our Imota Rice Mill.“From our farm in Araga, in Epe, we are now producing 150,000 eggs per day, translating to over 50 million eggs a year. Our fish and poultry farming programmes are empowering young and old farmers and agriculture has become a business as well as a strategic security initiative in our state. We are determined to also improve the quality of nutrition available to our citizens especially beef. Accordingly, the Ministry of Agriculture is acting appropriately to restore best practices to cattle rearing, slaughter and processing, including the sanctioning of operators of illegal abattoirs. We are not only enforcing, we are also training. This is why we sponsored 35 cattle dealers and butchers in Oko-Oba Abattoir on a training excursion to Kenya and Bostwana to sensitize them about the vision for cattle and beef production standards that we think our citizens deserve.
“As we embrace these standards, things can only get safer, businesses can only get stronger and opportunities will certainly expand for jobs and jobs seekers, if we move from sub-optimal practices to global best practices. As we deal with increasing capacity in the production of carbohydrates sources such as rice and cassava, and protein sources such as fish, poultry and beef, fruit and vegetable production are also increasing within the State in Araga Epe and from our farm in Osun state.”According to the governor, Lagos is also providing ready sales outlets and guaranteed market in farmers marts, which first started in Alausa and has now extended to Ajah and Surulere with a further three coming up in Shomolu, Ikorodu and LASU. He added that public transportation, the state’s biggest challenge, is by many parameters one of our biggest successes, as the history of the world shows that many cities and states often address one major transport solution at a time.
“The Boston Road Tunnel, the Mumbai Mono-Rail and the Madrid Bypass Calle 30 are examples of transport solutions individually undertaken in cities.
In this area, our state has set an unprecedented record of five simultaneous transport solutions undertaken by one government, from the 40.5km Lekki-Eti-Osa Epe Expressway, to the 61km Lagos Badagry Expressway, the 13.5km Mile 12-Ikorodu Expressway, the 27km Okokomaiko-Marina Lagos Blue Line Light Rail; to the ferry terminals in Ipakodo, Osborne, Badore, Mile 2-Ebute Ojo, it is obvious that your government has its hands full and remains committed to developing first class multi-modal transport solutions befitting of the economic and financial capital of West Africa. In the area of traffic management, about 2,406 personnel of LASTMA have been in intensive training for almost one year, and have written competence examinations and they are now set to graduate with a new ethos to traffic management.“Junction by junction, the number of traffic light installations are increasing and kilometer by kilometer, lane marking and traffic signs are appearing on our roads to make motoring a safer experience. We are encouraged that these solutions are working because of the feedback we get from citizens. On Friday 25th October 2013 a citizen sent me a text message saying: ‘The traffic light at Ojuelegba has been adjusted. No more hold up.’ As far as road repairs are concerned, the Public Works Corporation is building three new asphalt plants in Ojodu Berger, Ikorodu and Ajido Badagry to increase the speed of response to repair potholes; and the Ministry of Works is currently executing over 200 inner city road projects, which I promised in my budget speech last year.”
While he stated that it is impossible to list all the roads in the address, it was important to mention completed or ongoing works, such as:
Ago Palace Way in Okota
Salabiu Olanrewaju in Epe
Ado Kekere in Ajah Badore
Medical Road/Kodeshoh in Ikeja
Igi Olugbin in Somolu
Adetola Road in AgudaSinari Daranijo Street in Victoria Island
Glover Road in IkoyiIsaac John/John Ogunnaike in Ikeja
Balogun Amodu/Alhaji Dodoyowa in Ejirin Epe
Awolumate/Oguntande Street in Ifako Ijaiye
Showonuola Street in Agege
Akinola/Victor Fagbemi/Kollington/Imulokanle in Alimosho
Okusanya/Kufeji/Idowu Williams/Olaniyi at Ifako Ijaiye
Roundabout to Moshalashi/Ipaja/Ayobo Road in Alimosho
Bamgbose/Lewis, Alakoro, Marina/Kosoko Roads in Lagos Island
Orile Ilasan/Iroko Awe Road in Eti Osa
Continuing, the governor said: “In addition to these, there are bridge works in Ajao Estate, Agiliti, Tedi and Ijegun which are at different stages of construction and making progress towards completion. I have also recently approved the commencement of another 25 roads and as these roads and bridges are being completed, we expect to see improved connectivity and improved journey times.
Happily, the Lagos Traffic radio continues to remain the City’s favourite source of advance traffic information, while the Lekki-Link Bridge has achieved its iconic design purpose by becoming a favoured destination for residents and visitors alike and in the same vein is successfully performing its travel time reduction objective.“In response to public appeal, and after extensive consultations, our party the APC and our government have acquired the concession rights to the Lekki-Eti-Osa Expressway with the approval of the House of Assembly and plans are underway to complete the due diligence and takeover of the assets and to complete the road.
I am also happy to report that one year after its implementation, the Traffic Law has recorded huge successes in its life and property saving objectives.
Traffic accidents have reduced from 646 reported accidents in August 2012 to 118 reported accidents in July 2013, and deaths from motorcycle accidents have reduced from an average of 12 per month to one per month and indeed no deaths were recorded in August, September, and October.“We are concluding plans to implement the next phase of the Law, and we have been working with the Transport Unions to sensitize them. But before I move to housing; a little but serious word must be said about the Traffic Law.
Let me reiterate that out of over 10,000 roads in Lagos, the law restricted motorcycles from plying only 475, which are highways, if such motorcycles were not up to the 200 cc capacity. The law also provided that in the over 9,000 roads where there is no restriction, the riders must wear safety helmets and not carry more than one passenger.“While I must commend the operators for largely complying, I cannot say the same for a few law enforcement agents and few military personnel who have either turned enforcement into an extortionist exercise for money or have seen themselves as above the law by violating our traffic laws and BRT Laws. Let me say to them clearly, that it is bad enough if law enforcement personnel violate the laws they are constitutionally paid to enforce; it is the height of impunity if they do so in uniform. That uniform is the symbol of the authority of the state and it is funded from tax payers’ money. I have news for those bad eggs who give law enforcement a bad name in this country. We will bring you to justice and make examples of you; before you bring dishonour to these timeless institutions that have produced officers and true gentlemen.
“In the area of housing, I will not take more time than is necessary. I will only state that the LagosHoms programme is on course. Many of our housing units are making progress on 15 different construction sites, employing a total of 7,757workers, in Shitta, Gbagada, Ajara, Ilupeju, Sangotedo, Igbogbo, Mushin, and Omole to mention a few. At least 3,192 housing units will be added in the first quarter of 2014 to the already completed 1092 units.
“We intend to commence more developments to ensure that there is no shortage of supply once we start the allocation process. Apart from Power, Agriculture, Transport and Housing, we have not relented in other sectors. Our commitment to improving on the successes we have made in the area of security remains at an all-time high. We are consistently breaking up criminal gangs, arresting their members, recovering illegal arms and effecting seizures of hard drugs.”
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Lagos State Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu has reportedly asked the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Lagos Waste Management Authority (LAWMA), Dr Muyiwa Gbadegesin, to resign amid growing concerns over the accumulation of refuse across the state.
The reported move follows mounting complaints about waste collection, with heaps of garbage littering roads, residential areas and drainage channels in several communities.
An unnamed source within the agency disclosed that the governor had become dissatisfied with the pace of waste evacuation and the implementation of his directives to address the situation.
According to the source, the governor's frustration reportedly intensified following his visit to the Olusosun Dumpsite in Ojota about a month ago, where he assessed operations and called for urgent measures to improve waste management.
Despite the directive and the subsequent declaration of a state of emergency on waste management, the source claimed that the governor remained concerned about the limited visible progress.
The source further alleged that Sanwo-Olu asked Gbadegesin to resign over the weekend, adding that the LAWMA chief had reportedly been seeking the intervention of influential figures in Lagos to retain his position.
Refuse Accumulation Raises Sanitation Concerns
Residents in several parts of Lagos have continued to experience waste collection challenges, with refuse reportedly accumulating along major roads, medians, residential streets and drainage channels.
Affected areas include Mushin, Egbeda, Surulere, Ajegunle, Ikorodu, Ojo, Obalende, Apapa and Mile 2.
The situation has raised concerns about environmental sanitation, public health risks and the potential impact on businesses and daily activities.
The state government had earlier announced emergency measures to tackle the problem and improve waste collection across the metropolis.
In September, Sanwo-Olu declared a state of emergency on waste management following an inspection of the Olusosun Dumpsite. The visit was attended by Deputy Governor Dr Obafemi Hamzat and other stakeholders in the waste management sector.
During the inspection, the governor acknowledged delays in waste evacuation and attributed some of the challenges to the failure of Private Sector Participation (PSP) operators to meet their obligations in recent weeks.
He also identified fires at dumpsites and ongoing waste-compaction projects as factors affecting operational efficiency.
According to the governor, the completion of projects at the Olusosun and Solous 3 dumpsites would increase their capacity, allowing each facility to receive approximately 450 trucks of municipal waste daily.
The planned improvements are expected to strengthen disposal operations and support more efficient waste collection by PSP operators.
LAWMA Reports Progress in Clearance Operations
Amid growing concerns over the waste situation, Gbadegesin announced on Saturday that clearance operations had recorded progress in several locations across Lagos.
In an update shared on his X account, the LAWMA chief said Mile 2 had been cleared, while three additional trucks had been deployed to Doyin-Orile and surrounding communities.
He also reported continued daily waste collection along Ijesha Road and Itire–Ikate, clearance operations at Bucknor–Ijegun, and ongoing collection activities in Ogolonto and Igbokusu.
According to the update, Okeira and Oluodo had been placed under interim LAWMA services following the termination of their PSP arrangements, while clearance operations continued at Iraye.
However, the agency was still awaiting field updates from four routes: Apapa, Abesan Estate, Idimu–Ejigbo Road and the Isheri–Igando corridor.
Gbadegesin said the agency's objective was to move beyond emergency clearance operations and establish consistent waste collection to prevent refuse from accumulating again in areas that had already been cleared.
Government Yet to Confirm Reported Resignation Request
As of the time of reporting, there had been no official confirmation of the alleged resignation request.
Efforts to obtain a response from Lagos State Commissioner for Information, Gbenga Omotosho, were unsuccessful, as an aide said the commissioner was attending a meeting and advised that contact be made later.
Gbadegesin was reappointed as LAWMA managing director by Sanwo-Olu following the governor's re-election.
The reported development comes as the state government faces continued pressure to address waste collection challenges and improve environmental sanitation.
Whether the alleged resignation request will result in a leadership change remains unclear, while residents continue to await sustained improvements in refuse evacuation across Lagos.
News
Ayobami Oyalowo, Executive Director of Finance and Administration at the Ogun-Oshun River Basin Authority, has said reforms implemented under Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor Olayemi Cardoso have improved the foreign exchange market, strengthened external reserves and enhanced the resilience of the banking sector.
Assessing Cardoso’s three-year tenure, Oyalowo said the apex bank had shifted towards a more orthodox monetary policy framework, prioritising price stability, market discipline and stronger financial sector supervision.
Cardoso assumed office in September 2023 amid significant economic challenges, including foreign exchange market distortions, declining external buffers and rising inflation. Headline inflation stood at 25.80 per cent in August 2023, while multiple exchange rates, foreign currency shortages and accumulated foreign exchange obligations weakened business confidence.
According to Oyalowo, the reforms marked a departure from the CBN’s extensive involvement in intervention programmes across sectors such as agriculture, aviation and power.
He recalled that Cardoso disclosed at the November 2023 Annual Bankers’ Dinner that the CBN had injected more than ₦10 trillion into the economy through various intervention programmes.
Oyalowo said the scale of the interventions raised concerns about excess liquidity, policy effectiveness and the central bank’s involvement in activities that could be better handled by fiscal authorities and development finance institutions.
“The economic significance of this shift lies in restoring consistency between the CBN’s objectives and its policy instruments,” he said.
Forex Market Reforms and Reserve Growth
Oyalowo identified the foreign exchange market as one of the major areas affected by the reforms, following years of multiple exchange rates, restricted access to foreign currency and accumulated obligations.
He said the CBN’s measures were designed to improve price discovery, enhance liquidity and rebuild confidence in the official market.
Among the key initiatives, he highlighted the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System, introduced in December 2024, and the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Code, launched in January 2025. Both measures were aimed at improving transparency, accountability and market conduct.
He also pointed to the settlement of verified foreign exchange obligations from an inherited backlog estimated at $7 billion, noting that the move helped address concerns among international investors, airlines and multinational companies over capital repatriation and legitimate financial claims.
However, Oyalowo acknowledged that the adjustment came at a significant economic cost, including sharp naira depreciation, higher import costs, increased production expenses for manufacturers and mounting pressure on household purchasing power.
On external reserves, he said Nigeria’s gross foreign exchange reserves increased from approximately $33 billion when Cardoso assumed office to about $55 billion in October 2026.
He added that net external reserves had risen to approximately $46 billion, compared with $34.80 billion at the end of 2025 and $3.99 billion at the end of 2023, citing figures disclosed by the CBN.
Oyalowo also referenced the CBN’s 2025 Annual Report, which showed that aggregate foreign exchange inflows rose by 13.81 per cent to $109.86 billion in 2025, from $96.53 billion in 2024.
Net foreign exchange inflows stood at $60.81 billion, while autonomous sources accounted for approximately 64 per cent of total inflows.
He described the growing contribution of autonomous sources as significant, explaining that private-sector inflows, export earnings and remittances could provide a more sustainable supply of foreign exchange than administrative allocation.
Improved Credit Outlook and Investor Confidence
Oyalowo further cited improvements in Nigeria’s international credit assessments as evidence of renewed confidence in the country’s economic direction.
He noted that S&P Global upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit rating from ‘B−’ to ‘B’ with a Stable Outlook in May 2026. Fitch Ratings also affirmed Nigeria’s ‘B’ rating in October 2026 and revised its outlook from Stable to Positive.
He said Nigeria’s return to the FTSE Russell Frontier Market classification in September 2026 reflected improvements in foreign exchange market accessibility and capital repatriation.
Despite these developments, Oyalowo acknowledged that Nigeria’s sovereign credit ratings remained below investment grade.
He also cited National Bureau of Statistics data showing that capital importation increased to $23.22 billion in 2025, compared with $12.32 billion in 2024.
Portfolio investment accounted for approximately $19.74 billion, representing 85 per cent of total capital importation, while foreign direct investment stood at about $923 million.
According to him, the figures indicated renewed investor interest but underscored the need to attract more long-term capital into manufacturing, infrastructure, energy and technology.
Inflation, Interest Rates and Household Pressures
On inflation, Oyalowo said the CBN had maintained a restrictive monetary policy stance through higher interest rates and liquidity management measures.
He noted that headline inflation moderated to 15.39 per cent in August 2026, from 15.43 per cent in July and 25.80 per cent in August 2023.
However, he cautioned that the rebasing of the Consumer Price Index in 2025 meant historical inflation comparisons needed to be interpreted carefully.
“Moreover, lower inflation does not mean prices have returned to previous levels,” he said, stressing that households continued to bear the cumulative effects of earlier price increases.
He added that while tighter monetary policy could help contain inflationary pressures, high borrowing costs had made it more expensive for businesses to access credit, potentially constraining investment and economic expansion.
Bank Recapitalisation Strengthens Financial Sector
Oyalowo also highlighted the CBN’s banking sector recapitalisation programme, introduced in March 2024, as a major component of the reforms.
The programme raised minimum capital requirements to ₦500 billion for commercial banks with international authorisation, ₦200 billion for national banks and ₦50 billion for regional banks.
By March 2026, he said, 33 banks had met the revised requirements, collectively raising ₦4.65 trillion in fresh capital.
Domestic investors contributed 72.55 per cent of the capital raised, while international investors accounted for 27.45 per cent.
According to Oyalowo, the recapitalisation exercise had strengthened banks’ capacity to absorb financial shocks and finance larger transactions.
However, he emphasised that increased capital must be supported by sound governance, effective risk management and responsible lending practices.
“Stronger balance sheets must be accompanied by sound governance, effective risk management and responsible lending,” he said.
He noted that the challenge for policymakers was to balance financial sector resilience with affordable access to credit, particularly for businesses operating under restrictive monetary conditions.
CBN, Finance Ministry Deepen Policy Coordination
Oyalowo identified the September 18, 2026, Memorandum of Understanding between the CBN and the Federal Ministry of Finance as another important development.
He said the agreement established a framework for closer coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities, covering government cash management, debt issuance planning, liquidity forecasting and macroeconomic analysis.
According to him, the arrangement could reduce the risk of fiscal and monetary policies working at cross-purposes, particularly where government borrowing and spending influence inflation, liquidity conditions and access to credit.
He added that the framework recognised the structural factors driving inflation in Nigeria, including food supply constraints, energy costs, transportation and logistics expenses.
Consolidating the Gains of Reform
Three years into Cardoso’s tenure, Oyalowo said the CBN had recorded measurable changes in foreign exchange market accessibility, external reserves, banking sector capitalisation and investor participation.
He maintained that the governor’s emphasis on monetary orthodoxy had provided the apex bank with a clearer institutional direction, while acknowledging the economic costs associated with the adjustment process.
He stressed, however, that sustaining the gains would require consistent policies, stronger productive investment and measures to ease the pressure on households and businesses.
“The next responsibility is to consolidate these reforms, preserve the gains in macroeconomic stability and create conditions for stronger productive investment, more affordable credit and improved living standards,” Oyalowo said.
Business
In The Spotlight
While delivering the 2026 edition of the Annual Omolayole Management Lecture, President, Chartered Institute of Directors and immediate past Managing Director of 11 PLC, formerly Mobil Oil Nigeria Plc, Adetunji Oyebanji, presented President Bola Tinubu with something to think about.
He declared, “Based on a 2025 normal Gross Domestic Product baseline of approximately US$290.79bn, Nigeria would need to sustain a compound growth rate of approximately 28.02 per cent over the five-year period from 2026 to 2030” to achieve the $1tn economy.
He added, “This rate far exceeds Nigeria’s historical performance and underscores the scale of economic expansion required,” and “Rather than serving as a forecast, this calculation establishes the benchmark against which future economic performance may be assessed.”
As if the priest spoke and thunder rumbled, Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that Nigeria’s year-on-year GDP growth rate for the second quarter of 2026 was 4.43 per cent, while the World Bank projected 4.3 per cent growth rate for Nigeria in 2026, up from nearly 4.0 per cent recorded for 2025.
As Oyebanji observed, Nigeria’s economy experienced low growth rates and reversals in the last decade: from 2.65 per cent in 2015, to -1.62 per cent contraction in 2016, a modest 2 per cent rebound in 2017, another reversal, of -1.79 per cent occasioned by Covid-19 in 2020, to a positive rebound of 3.87, or nearly 4, per cent in 2025.
If anyone says President Tinubu has a yeoman’s job ahead of him, they’re spot on. And if he merely coveted the $1tn economy by faith and not with data, it would appear that the President is planning to fail.
And somebody should tell the Comptroller-General of the Nigeria Customs Service, Adewale Adeniyi, who pledged to support the President’s ambition to build the $1tn economy, not to confuse government revenue with a country’s economy.
Oyebanji recognised “governance as the central determinant of success” in the $1tn economy quest, and identified oil, gas and energy; agriculture and agro-processing; manufacturing and industrial development; technology, digital economy and innovation; infrastructure; solid minerals; and services and the creative industry as the sectoral drivers.
But it appears that only the digital, mineral resources mining, service and creative sectors can thrive in the current Nigerian economic environment, and the real sector, agriculture and manufacturing, that produce the strategic consumer goods that are mostly imported at the moment, cannot thrive yet.
The governance structures that Oyebanji suggests for the takeoff of the $1tn economy are macroeconomic stability through disciplined fiscal and monetary policies, consistency of policies, rapid investment in infrastructure and nifty tinkering with the economic environment.
These are the direct opposites of the current negatives: power supply deficit, infrastructure gap, inefficiency in the oil sector, an unstable foreign exchange rate, a low tax-to-GDP rate, insecurity, policy inconsistencies and a huge human capital deficit that compromise the capacity of the real sector and even the service industry.
If the President really wants the $1tn economy to become a reality in 2030, he should review Oyebanji’s perspectives, data and prescriptions and seek competent economists, management and financial planning experts to help him articulate a clear path to achieving this laudable economic prosperity.
Some experts, convinced he may not achieve his objective within the period he has earmarked, think he could at least set himself on the way by making ambitious efforts in electricity, security and logistics, including extensive road, railway, water and air travel networks.
Nigeria’s current electricity generating capacity is somewhere between 4,500 and 5,400 megawatts, whereas it is projected that Nigeria probably needs to generate anywhere between 20,000 and 28,000 megawatts for its 230 million population.
Some even argue that 28,000 megawatts of electricity won’t service the population of Nigeria that is projected to increase to 262 or 270 million by the magical 2030 that the President has set as a deadline for the $1tn economy.
If the electricity infrastructure is not addressed pointedly by the Federal and the state governments that have now been enabled by the transfer of electricity from the Exclusive Federal List to the Concurrent List of the Nigerian Constitution, the economy will not lift off as expected.
The declaration by the Nigerian Constitution that security and the welfare of the people of Nigeria is Job Number One of government confirms the nexus or relationship between public security, public order and the nation’s economic wellbeing.
The classic definition of the state, which is the final, supreme, absolute coercive power within a political realm, speaks to the place of the state, whose public face is the government, as both the arbiter and safeguard of the lives and economic livelihoods of the citizens of a country.
The current inability of the state or the government, which is supposed to have a monopoly on police and military force within the country, is consistently having a negative impact on the security and the economies of the North-East, North-West, North-Central and some corridors of Southern Nigeria.
The rural areas, where insurgency, terrorism, banditry, herder-farmer clashes, and kidnapping have become rampant, are unsafe for lives and unconducive for the farmers who produce the food consumed by the citizens and the cash crops that provide the raw materials for the growth of agro-allied and chemical industries.
Maybe it bears repeating that in addition to preventing harvests from the farms, insecurity is disrupting the transportation of food to the dining tables of Nigerian homes, as well as the cash crops that provide the raw materials for Nigerian industries.
The third basic aspect of the Nigerian economy that the President must take a long, hard look at, if he really wants to make the $1tn economy a reality, is logistics, which is already taking a beating from the insecurity running through most of Nigeria.
The Federal Government must find the funds and speed up the completion of Lagos-Calabar Coastal Road, the Sokoto-Badagry Expressway, the Calabar-Abuja Superhighway and additional longitudinal and lateral highways to link Nigerian farms, industries and homes.
No one can deny that roads encourage the founding and development of modern communities that later become metropolises. Look at the organic growth of urban communities from the Berger end of the Lagos-Ibadan Expressway to the Shagamu Interchange.
To prepare for the heavy lifting necessary to realise the $1tn economy, President Tinubu needs to study and take the best of the railway systems of America, which has the longest rail network in the world; China, with the largest high-speed rail network; Russia, the leader in heavy freight; and India, with the highest passenger rail network.
Cargo airports are more than necessary for quick evacuation of fresh agricultural produce from the farm gates to the urban centres where they will be consumed fresh or converted into raw materials for the agro-allied industries.
The President must find a way to harness the strength of Nigeria’s inland rivers not only to generate hydroelectric power, but also as an integral part of a transportation network that will include roads, railways and airports.
If electricity, security and logistics are taken care of, it shouldn’t be too difficult for the $1tn economy to take off organically.
By Lekan Sote
In The Spotlight
There is a question President Bola Ahmed Tinubu must answer before the 2027 presidential election: if he wants another four years in Aso Rock, why should Nigerians not expect him to stand before them, state by state, and defend his record?
His decision not to accompany his campaign team to every state has ignited a political storm, drawing criticism from opposition leaders, activists and ordinary citizens, while others insist that governance must not grind to a halt because of electioneering. The President argues that Nigeria’s pressing needs demand his attention and that members of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Presidential Campaign Council can carry his message to voters nationwide.
That argument is not entirely without merit. A sitting president has constitutional responsibilities that do not disappear during an election campaign. Government must function, security must be addressed, and the business of the nation must continue.
But there is a dangerous flaw in the President’s position: governance is not an escape route from accountability, and a campaign surrogate is no substitute for the candidate whose record is on trial.
Tinubu is not seeking a ceremonial extension of his stay in office. He is asking Nigerians to entrust him with another four years of power. That request demands more than carefully choreographed rallies, rehearsed speeches and party loyalists singing his praises. It demands answers.
What has happened to the promises made in 2023? What tangible relief have millions of struggling households received? How should Nigerians assess the consequences of petrol subsidy removal and naira reforms? What is the administration’s scorecard on electricity, food prices, employment, insecurity and the cost of living?
These are not questions that can be wished away by delegating campaign appearances to governors and party leaders. They are questions that belong to the President.
THE PEOPLE ARE NOT FOOLS
Across the country, the mood is unmistakable: Nigerians want to be heard. From the trader counting the dwindling contents of her purse to the worker whose salary struggles to survive the month, from the farmer threatened by insecurity to the young graduate searching desperately for employment, the public is entitled to demand a reckoning.
For many citizens, the election will not be an abstract contest of political slogans. It will be a verdict on their lived experience.
That is why Tinubu’s proposed absence from some campaign stops has struck such a sensitive nerve. To his critics, it suggests an unwillingness to confront public anger. Some have questioned his physical fitness; others believe he may be reluctant to defend his administration’s performance. These are allegations, not established facts. The President’s decision alone does not prove that he is unwell or afraid of voters.
Nevertheless, he should understand the political consequences of leaving such questions unanswered. In politics, a vacuum rarely remains empty. Suspicion rushes in where explanation is absent.
If the President is physically capable of discharging his duties, he should have no reason to leave Nigerians guessing about his willingness to engage them. If health or other legitimate considerations constrain his campaign schedule, he should communicate his plans clearly. Nigerians deserve honesty, not speculation.
Silence may be convenient, but it is a poor campaign strategy.
GOVERNANCE IS NOT A SHIELD
The argument that the President must remain focused on governance sounds reasonable. Indeed, Nigeria cannot afford a government that abandons its responsibilities whenever politicians hit the campaign trail.
But the same argument raises another question: what exactly is the President doing with the time he saves by skipping campaign stops, and how will Nigerians see the benefits?
If governance is the priority, then the evidence should be visible in improved security, greater economic stability, reliable electricity, better access to essential services and a meaningful reduction in the hardship confronting ordinary families.
The President cannot invoke the demands of governance as a shield against political scrutiny while asking the same citizens to renew his mandate. The two responsibilities are not mutually exclusive. A president can govern and explain his governance. He can attend to national business and still make himself available to voters.
Nor should the APC confuse the ability to organise rallies with the ability to win public confidence. Party machinery can mobilise crowds. Governors can deliver speeches. Spokespersons can defend policy. But none of them can erase the consequences of decisions taken by the President.
The mandate belongs to Tinubu. So does the responsibility to defend it.
THE OPPOSITION MUST DO MORE THAN SHOUT
Opposition figures, including former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, have seized on the President’s position to question his commitment to accountability. The Labour Party and the Makinde/Daura Presidential Campaign Organisation have also criticised the plan.
Their central argument—that a president seeking re-election should personally defend his record—is persuasive. But criticism alone is not a credible alternative to leadership.
The opposition must do more than exploit public frustration. It must present workable policies, credible economic proposals, a serious security strategy and a clear plan for restoring public confidence. Nigerians deserve alternatives, not merely louder accusations.
Claims about poverty, economic failure, insecurity and government performance should be supported by verifiable evidence, not inflated for political effect. A campaign that demands accountability from the incumbent must be prepared to practise it itself.
Democracy suffers when the ruling party evades scrutiny. It suffers equally when opposition parties substitute rhetoric for substance.
THE PRESIDENCY IS NOT A PARTY HEADQUARTERS
There is another troubling issue in this controversy: the use of the Presidential Villa for the inauguration of the APC Presidential Campaign Council.
The Presidency is a public institution, not the private property of a political party. The President is entitled to lead his party and campaign for re-election, but the distinction between official state functions and partisan political activities must remain clear.
Public institutions must not be made to appear subordinate to party interests. The symbolism matters, particularly in a democracy where public trust is already under pressure. The appropriate rules governing the use of official premises and public resources must be respected without exception.
The President should set the standard, not leave Nigerians wondering whether the lines between state and party have become dangerously blurred.
FACE THE PEOPLE
Tinubu is under no obligation to conduct an exhausting, state-by-state campaign simply to satisfy political theatrics. Campaign schedules must accommodate legitimate security, administrative and personal considerations. No responsible editorial judgment should demand that a president jeopardise his health or neglect urgent national duties for the sake of appearances.
But there is a difference between not visiting every state and refusing to account for one's stewardship.
The President can publish a transparent record of his administration’s achievements and failures. He can hold substantive town halls, grant unscripted interviews, answer questions from citizens and journalists, and ensure that his campaign team presents verifiable evidence rather than political slogans. He can also visit a representative cross-section of states while explaining clearly why other stops may not be possible.
What he cannot reasonably expect is that Nigerians will accept delegation as a substitute for accountability.
Ultimately, the 2027 election must be about more than who can draw the biggest crowd or deliver the most electrifying speech. It must be about performance, policy, integrity and the willingness to answer difficult questions.
Tinubu has the right to seek another term. Nigerians have an even more fundamental right to scrutinise that ambition.
A second-term mandate is not a gift to be collected. It is a verdict to be earned.
The President should therefore face the nation with candour, defend his record with evidence and explain why he deserves another four years. If his achievements speak for themselves, let him present them. If his policies have delivered the promised gains, let him demonstrate them. If mistakes have been made, let him acknowledge them and explain what he intends to do differently.
No surrogate can do this convincingly on his behalf.
In the final analysis, the campaign may belong to the APC, but the verdict belongs to Nigerians. Their hardship cannot be delegated. Their questions cannot be outsourced. And their votes cannot be commanded.
Tinubu must face the people—not because every campaign rally is sacred, but because accountability is.