With the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) fixing February 6, 2027, for governorship and state assembly elections in 28 states, the map of likely battlegrounds is already taking shape. Eight “off cycle” states - Anambra, Bayelsa, Edo, Ekiti, Imo, Kogi, Ondo and Osun - will not hold governorship polls that day, having shifted to separate calendars after court rulings and earlier contests. Below is a state by state look at where succession battles and party fractures will most likely produce real contests
South West: Lagos, Ogun, Oyo
Lagos: Babajide Sanwo Olu (APC) is in his second and final term, and early indications suggest the fiercest struggle will be inside the APC rather than between parties. Aspirants are already positioning around zoning, loyalty to party godfathers, and control of Lagos’s powerful political machinery.
Ogun: Governor Dapo Abiodun (APC) is also term limited in 2027. Internal APC rivalries, past primary disputes and the strength of opposition structures make Ogun a likely flashpoint, especially if aggrieved factions or defectors coalesce around alternative platforms.
Oyo: Seyi Makinde (PDP) is serving his second term, and the PDP is grappling with internal strains even as the APC seeks to reclaim the state. With both succession within the PDP and a resurgent APC in play, Oyo is shaping up as one of the South West’s most competitive races.
North East: Bauchi, Borno, Adamawa, Gombe, Yobe
Bauchi: Governor Bala Mohammed (PDP) is term limited, and succession is already stirring zoning debates and intra party tensions. With the APC strong nationally and PDP structures under pressure, Bauchi is widely seen as a genuine swing contest.
Borno: Babagana Zulum (APC) is in his final term. APC dominance is strong, but the succession race within the party, especially around continuity of Zulum’s security focused agenda, could open space for internal fractures and opposition bargaining.
Adamawa: Ahmadu Fintiri (PDP) will be exiting after two terms. The state has a history of close contests and party swings; with PDP under national pressure and APC eager to flip the state, Adamawa is a likely North East battleground.
Gombe: Inuwa Yahaya (APC) is term limited, and succession maneuvers are already under way. The state’s relatively competitive party balance and the role of defectors make Gombe one to watch.
Yobe: Mai Mala Buni (APC) is in his final term. APC remains dominant, but internal alignments around his successor, and any national level realignments, will determine whether Yobe stays “safe” or becomes unexpectedly competitive.
North Central: Nasarawa, Kwara (plus off cycle Kogi)
Nasarawa: Governor Abdullahi Sule (APC) is completing his second term. The state has seen tight races and litigation in recent cycles, and with Sule exiting, both APC succession battles and opposition recalculations could turn Nasarawa into a serious battleground.
Kwara: AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (APC), also in his final term, presides over a state that flipped dramatically in 2019. Whether the “Ó tó gé” realignment holds or fragments as succession politics intensify will determine how open the 2027 race becomes. (Kogi is off cycle and will not hold a governorship election in 2027.)
North West and North Central fringe: Kano and others
Kano (politically central off cycle dynamics): Though not part of the 2027 governorship ballot if its calendar remains unchanged, Kano’s political realignments; most recently the defection of Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf from NNPP to APC, are reshaping the broader national map and will influence House and presidential races. In the 28 states voting for governor in 2027, several North West and North Central states where APC has consolidated governorships after waves of defections are expected to see more intense intra party contests than inter party ones, with opposition parties trying to exploit any fractures.
South East and South South
Most South East and some South South states are on off cycle calendars (Anambra, Imo, Edo, Bayelsa, Ondo, Osun), meaning their governorship races will not coincide with the February 2027 date. However, their political currents, especially defections, zoning debates and party crises, will still feed into National Assembly and presidential contests, and into how national parties allocate resources and attention.
The bigger picture
INEC’s timetable places presidential and National Assembly elections on January 16,2027, with governorship and state assembly polls following on February 6, 2027. Layered on top of that is a structural shift: by early 2026, the ruling APC controlled 31 of 36 governorships, after a series of defections from opposition parties. That dominance means many of the fiercest 2027 battles are likely to be: inside the APC in term limited states (Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Bauchi, Borno, Adamawa, Gombe, Yobe, Nasarawa, Kwara); between APC and resurgent opposition blocs in states where internal crises weaken incumbents (notably Oyo and Bauchi); and around off cycle states, whose separate governorship calendars still shape national bargaining and coalition building.
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