Individuals and groups both within and outside Nigeria spent a major part of Monday condemning the chairman of the Lagos State Traditional Council and Oba of Lagos, Rilwan Akiolu, for saying "any Igbo person in Lagos who refuses to vote for his own endorsed candidate would die withing seven days."
The Oba, who received some Igbo chiefs resident in Lagos at his palace during the Easter celebration, reportedly commanded the Igbo people to vote for Akinwunmi Ambode, the candidate of the All Progressives Congress (APC) as governor of Lagos State in the election that would hold on Saturday because if they vote for Jimi Agbaje, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), whom he called his blood, that would be their end.
By the grace of God, I am the owner of Lagos for the time being. On Saturday, if anyone of you, I swear in the name of God, goes against my wish that Ambode will be the next governor of Lagos State, the person is going to die inside this water.
« For the Igbo and others in Lagos, they should go where the Oba of Lagos heads to. When they were coming to the state, they did not come with all their houses. But now, they have properties in the state. So they must do my bidding. And that is the bidding of the ancestors of Lagos and God.
"I am not ready to beg you. Nobody knew how I picked Ambode. Jimi is my blood relation and I told him that he could never be governor in Lagos for now. I am not begging anybody, but what you people cannot do in Onitsha, Aba or anywhere you cannot do it here," the Oba had said.
Since Monday when the report as well as the audio and video format broke, Nigerians have taken to various social media to castigate the Oba with many saying he does not know how to talk while others say his comments are inciting.
Some even made jest of him saying as a retired police officer, he has been heavily influenced financially to forget the pride that should come with his stool.
CATHOLIC GROUP CONDEMNS AKIOLU
In a statement condemning him, the Catholic Caritas Foundation of Nigeria said the Oba's threat was against morality and royalty.
in a statement signed by Fr. Evaristus Bassey, Executive Secretary of the Caritas Nigeria and JDPC, Abuja, the religious group wondered why the Oba singled out the Igbos whereas even some Yorubas and people of other tribes would vote for Agbaje.
"At the national offices of Caritas Nigeria and Justice Development and Peace Commission, we are totally shocked to read about the threat handed down by Oba Akiolu to the Igbos in Lagos. While it is understandable that a Royal Father would want for his wishes to be carried out, we are deeply concerned that the royal father is missing the point that Nigeria is a republic and a democracy and not a monarchy.
"We understand the genuine fear of the great Oba of losing Lagos to strangers. But Lagos has been one of the most cosmopolitan cities in Africa for decades and any citizen contributing to its economy and politics can be a bona fide resident. As such, the upstages as happened in the last elections are to be expected.
"Nevertheless natives and non-native residents should feel free to negotiate and clarify expectations but not in the threatening and intimidating manner the revered Oba has lashed out.
"We have just a few interrogations: why single out a particular ethnic group for this curse? Does it mean a Yoruba or Hausa person living in Lagos who votes for Jimi Agbaje will go scot-free but any Igbo who votes for Agbaje will drown in the Lagoon?
"Does it mean that people should vote out of fear and not their consciences? Would such an election be free and fair, where people have to vote out of intimidation? Does not the threat of the Oba Akiolu amount to voter intimidation?
"We humbly call on the Oba himself to withdraw his curse and rather appeal to the people, for indeed such a threat may amount to playing God and God who is a merciful father will not allow his children to die so senselessly just because they were fulfilling the dictates of their conscience.
"The fact that APC is government at the centre is a strong factor to employ and appeal to people to vote APC rather than invoking ancestral powers for destruction. Why is it that in Africa we usually invoke our powers for destruction and not for building-up?"
OHANAEZE GIVES AKIOLU 48 HOURS ULTIMATUM
The Ohanaeze Youth Council (OYC), the youth wing of Ohanaeze Ndigbo, a socio-cultural organisation of Igbo people, on Monday evening issued Oba Akiolu a 48-hour ultimatum to, not only retract his threat to the Igbo people, but tender an unreserved apology to the ethnic group.
The group which reminded the monarch that democracy gives the freedom to the electorate to make their choices without intimidation, said it was a despicable insult on the Igbo nation, home and abroad, for the Oba to issue such threats adding that it was the least expected of a royal father in the rank of Oba of Lagos.
The group, which asked security agencies to invite the Oba for questioning because of the grave dangers his current posture portends, slammed the Oba for using a crude method to attempt to coerce the people in a situation where they are free to make their choices.
In a statement issued in Umuahia, Abia State and endorsed by its National President, Mazi Okechukwu Isiguzoro, the group warned that Igbo youths would not take this insult lightly, and unless he apologises within 48 hours he should know he is courting the wrath of the Igbo people. It also asked that the Oba should be held responsible should anything happen to any Ndigbo or their business interests in Lagos in the event of APC losing the Lagos governorship race.
"Inasmuch as we do not want to get involved in Lagos politics, we want to sound a note of warning that no Igbo should be vilified or persecuted for his or her electoral choice in Lagos or any part of Nigeria.
"Every Nigerian has the constitutional right to reside in any part of the country and participate in the electoral process based on one’s convictions, and electoral choice is not a crime.
"Nobody no matter what he thinks he is, has the right to command Ndigbo anywhere on who to vote for in a democratic setting," the statement said adding that the Oba's comments only revealed his innate hatred for Ndigbo.
YOU DON'T OWN LAGOS, PDP TELLS OBA
In a statement issued by its National Publicity Secretary, Olisa Metuh, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) condemned what it described as "the emerging height of political recklessness in Lagos and Ekiti states ahead of Saturday’s governorship and House of Assembly elections and calls on all Nigerians to stand up against such anti-democratic tendencies."
APC members in the Ekiti State House of Assembly have commenced impeachment moves against Governor Ayodele Fayose, but the PDP said: "the senseless and unpatriotic impeachment move against Governor Ayo Fayose by out-going APC state legislators and the barbaric death threats on non-indigenes in Lagos by the Oba of Lagos, Oba Rilwan Akiolu if they voted for the PDP candidate, Mr. Jimi Agbaje, ascended to a height of unruliness that should not be accommodated.
"The PDP totally and unequivocally rejects the flimsy and unsubstantiated allegations concocted by the APC legislators against Governor Fayose. We state in very clear terms that we will stand with him and bear our full weight in defense of the mandate freely given to him by the people of Ekiti state.
"We invite all lovers of democracy and the international community to note the antics of APC and the deliberate plot to destabilize the polity even when it is yet to assume power.
"In the same vein, it is indeed most unfortunate that a royal father of the status of the Oba of Lagos should attempt to drag the revered traditional institution into partisan politics to the level of threatening innocent Nigerians with the view to prevent them from freely exercising their constitutionally guaranteed right.
"Our response to the Oba of Lagos is that he cannot play God and can never be God. God owns the universe and every part of it and can never share His glory with any human no matter how highly placed.
"We therefore call on all Nigerians in Lagos state; all Igbos, Hausas, Yorubas and people of other tribes; all northerners and southerners; all Christians and Muslims to turn against this unpatriotic stance, by coming out enmasse to vote for the PDP candidate, Mr. Jimi Agbaje on Saturday.
"Undoubtedly, this anti-Nigeria position reminds of the 2013 inhuman and callous arrest, detention and eventual ‘deportation’ of non-indigenes by the APC-led government of Lagos state and confirms fears that the APC is indeed on a mission to destroy our national unity, balkanize the nation and obliterate the personal freedom Nigerians enjoy today.
"Already, the APC has started terrorizing supporters of the PDP with vows to make life unbearable for them when it eventually assumes power. Our investigation reveals that many of our prominent supporters have been marked. The process has already started with threats to the life, family and business of the Chairman of the Transformation Ambassadors of Nigeria (TAN), Dr. Ifeanyi Ubah for supporting PDP candidates and helping non-indigenes win some Lagos seats in the National Assembly on the platform of the our great party.
"Indeed, if this threats on a duly elected state governor and innocent Nigerians constitute the picture or foretaste of the order of the day when the APC finally assumes power at the center, then the nation is in serious danger. However, the PDP states in very unambiguous terms that Nigerians would not accept such under any guise whatsoever.
"This is more so because in the last 16 years, our citizens from all walks of lives have seen civility and decorum under the PDP-led administration and would not accept any attempt by anybody to institute a reign of terror in the country
"We therefore urge General Muhammadu Buhari as the leader of the APC to call his members and supporters, particularly in Lagos and Ekiti to order; especially bearing in mind that it was the peaceful atmosphere and the level playing ground nurtured by the PDP-led administration that created the room for his emergence at the presidential polls. Our country cannot at this moment afford to slide into anarchy, reign of terror and deliberate schemes to divide the the people for selfish political reasons.
"The PDP will completely resist all anti democratic forces from any quarters. We therefore charge Nigerians, especially those in Lagos and Ekiti states respectively to stand up fearlessly and reject the unpatriotic stance of the Oba of Lagos and the undemocratic move to dismantle the mandate given to Governor Ayo Fayose by the people."
FEMI FANI-KAYODE`S RESPONSE
In his reaction, the Director of Media of the President Goodluck Jonathan campaign Organisation, Chief Femi Fani-Kayode, said: "the Oba of Lagos' threat against the Igbos in Lagos that if they do not vote for the APC in the governorship elections on Saturday they should be ready for the consequences and that if they don't vote for Ambode they should be ready to perish in the lagoon is ominous and unacceptable.
"The truth is that we were threatened with ethnic cleansing and religious carnage in the north had Buhari not won the election on march 28th and had Jonathan not quickly conceded defeat and now our traditional supporters are being threatened in Lagos and in many other states.
"Let two things be clearly understood. In as much as we all want peace in this country and in as much as Jonathan has graciously and quickly conceded defeat in the Presidential election, this does not mean that we are weak or powerless.
"Let it be clearly understood by all and sundry that any attempt to kill or molest our supporters in the north, in the west or indeed in any other part of the country either before, during or after saturday's governorship elections or any attempt at ethnic or religious cleansing by the APC, their supporters or their friends and agents will be deemed unacceptable and will be met with defiance, contempt and resistance.
"Enough of all these APC threats and all this rubbish. No-one is intimidated on our side and neither do we fear for the future because God is with us, He is faithful and He is in control. We want peace and we want harmony in this country but no-one or no group of people will be allowed to turn us or our supporters into slaves or give us sleepless nights.
"The APC would do well to remember that they only won the presidential election by 2 million votes. The PDP got 12 million votes in that election which means that we have 12 million loyal foot soldiers and supporters in this country and that is no mean feat.
"We are a strong party, we are confident for the future, we are ready for anything and most important of all we are ready for the polls on saturday. We take this opportunity to urge the PDP faithful in Lagos to go out and vote en masse for the PDP.
"We urge them to vote for Jimi Agbaje and to free Lagos state from the shackles of darkness and oppression. We urge them to stand firm, to hold their heads up high and to do their very best.
"We urge our supporters in Rivers state, Oyo state, Imo state, Plateau state, Kaduna state and indeed in all the states where elections will take place on saturday to do the same, to take the destiny of their respective states into their hands and to vote for the PDP candidates in the various elections.
"What happened during the presidential election on March 28th was sad and unfortunate but we have accepted defeat and we wholeheartedly accept the will of the people of Nigeria. That does not however mean that we should close shop and not put up a good fight for Saturdays governorship elections.
"This is the time to call on the party faithful to rise up. This is the time to rally our troops and to call on our footsoldiers and loyalists to come out in their millions and wipe away the sadness of march 28th by winning massively in saturdays governorship elections.
"This is the time to prove to our detractors that despite their provocative utterances, their empty and boastful threats, their mocking words and their gratutious insults that the PDP is far from dead and is still very much alive.
"Our party shall go from strength to strength despite the monumental challenges that lie ahead. Whether we win or lose on saturday is not the issue. The issue is that whatever anyone may say and whatever they may feel, the PDP is not going anywhere and neither shall we crumble and fade away. We are here for the long haul: we are here to stay."
AMBODE'S SUBTLE DISAPPROVAL
In what seems like a subtle disapproval of Oba Akiolu's threats to the Ndigbo in Lagos, Akinwunmi Ambode said he would not be a governor to selected ethnic groups in the state but would stand for everyone in the state as governor.
In a statement released to journalists on Monday, Ambode said promised that every group in Lagos would be safe in his hands as governor adding that he would not discriminate against any religious or ethnic group if elected.
"It is our Lagos and we must build it together.
« In my acceptance speech after the primaries I made this note that I will be a governor for all and Lagos is safe in my hands. I want to build on the foundation of unity, peace and progress and development laid by my predecessors.
"And though tongue and tribe may differ, we stand in brotherhood in Lagos from the smallest ethnic groups to the major ones. We are all stakeholders," he said.
PALACE CLARIFIES OBA'S STATEMENT
In a bid to douse the tension created by the Oba's statement, the palace has explained what it said actually transpired at the event.
In a statement signed by Chief Lateef Aderibigbe Ajose, the Opeluwa of Lagos, and made available to Huhuonline.com, the palace said: "last Sunday, all honorary Eze Ndigbos in Lagos paid a courtesy call to HRM Oba Akiolu. At the meeting the visitors praised the Oba for his fatherly support for and cooperation with Igbos in. Lagos. They assured him of their continued good neighbourliness with other tribes in Lagos and support everything that will further strengthen that harmony.
"Oba Akiolu on his part acknowledged the enviable performance of Governor Fashola and his contribution to the growth of investments in Lagos. He gave the assurance that he is not disturbed or angry with South-East and South- South votes for President Jonathan as perceived by the Eze Ndigbos.
"The Obas thereafter called on the Igbos chiefs to show appreciation to Lagos State by supporting his candidate Mr. Ambode for continuity of excellence as they have earlier promised.
"He assured them of his continued support and assistance where needed and the meeting ended with the traditional breaking of kola, alligator pepper, and bitter kola and pouring of libation on the ground.
"It was within this context that the tradition of Lagos with regard to the lagoon came up. It was noted that whoever works against the throne and the interest and peaceful co-existence of Lagos would end up in the lagoon as per tradition.
"Oba Akiolu stated further that the Igbo people have not betrayed the throne. Lagos has also not betrayed the Igbo people. Lagos has done so much to make the Igbos comfortable and to prosper. For this, we expect reciprocal respect and understanding. The Oba of Lagos prays that the Lagoon and the throne will continue to bless and protect all those who reside and visit Lagos.
"Oba Akiolu is the father of all irrespective of tribe, religion or political persuasion. In Lagos, we have an old traditional proverb that relates to the Lagoon. The Lagoon is unique to Lagos. The proverb stresses the need for unity and understanding when you do business in an environment and in this case when you live and do business in Lagos.
"Oba Akiolu prayed for peace for the land of Lagos and prosperity for all its inhabitants."
APC DISOWN OBA AKIOLU
However, the All Peoples Congress in a statement signed by Joe Igbokwe, the state spokesperson of the party, the APC apologized and appealed to Ndigbo to allow peace reign, considering the longstanding relationship that has existed between Igbo and Yoruba since the inception of Nigeria. “No human being is above mistakes,” Mr. Igbokwe said. “People can make mistakes and correct it thereafter. The Oba of Lagos can make a mistake and we believe that the statement credited to him was a mistake. If to err is human, we plead with Ndigbo to let the sleeping dog lie.
“After the March 28 2015 Presidential elections, Ndigbo in Lagos have been trooping into the Lagos APC fold in droves. They have pledged to throw their full weight behind the APC guber candidate, Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode. The support was total and unprecedented. You can therefore imagine how we feel as a party when this incident came just few days to the governorship elections.”
“Oba Rilwan Akiolu of Lagos is not a card-carrying member of APC. He is not a leader in APC. He does not speak for APC. He did not speak for Governor Fashola of Lagos State. He did not speak for our National leader, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. He did not speak for the incoming governor, Mr. Akinwunmi Ambode. His Royal Highness is at liberty to speak for himself and he spoke for himself only. Lagos APC appeals to Ndigbo not to take the statement as the position of the party in Lagos.”
“We passionately appeal to Ndigbo not to carry the statement credited to Oba Akiolu too far so as not to put a knife on things that have held us together for more than 50 years now. If out of annoyance you throw your cap away a mad man will take it and use it forever.”
“A lot is at stake in Lagos. Lagos has been fair to Ndigbo and Ndigbo have reciprocated by taking Lagos as their home no matter whose ox is gored. Lagos APC believes that Ndigbo will not burn the bridges because of this minor setback.
“Lagos APC has worked so hard with other Nigerians to enthrone a government at the centre and we cannot afford to throw all these gains away by allowing the mistakes of the last weekend to stand on our way to link Lagos effectively with the centre. Our own Oba Rilwan Akiolu’s slip of tongue should not be used as an excuse by Ndigbo to reverse these huge gains. Ndigbo should forgive and forget by voting APC en mass this coming Saturday.”
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More than 76 ISWAP terrorists have abandoned their enclaves and surrendered to troops within the North-East theatre of operations as part of the Joint Task Force (North East), Operation HADIN KAI (OPHK), and continued operational successes.
The North East geopolitical zone comprises six states: Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe.
In a statement by the Acting Military Information Officer, Headquarters Joint Task Force North East Operation Hadin Kai, Captain Mohammed Goni, revealed that among those who surrendered were key members of the terrorist network, due to relentless military pressure.
“The development highlights the devastating impact of the sustained offensive by Operation HADIN KAI, which continues to dismantle terrorist strongholds, disrupt command and logistics structures, and deny the insurgents freedom of action across the theatre”.
“Persistent military operations have continued to degrade the terrorists’ combat capabilities while eroding confidence within their ranks and leadership. Within the last week alone, a total of 76 terrorist foot soldiers with some families surrendered to troops”
“They are currently in a secure location undergoing profiling, debriefing, and other established procedures in accordance with extant operational protocols,” the statement reads in part.
According to Captain Goni, the operational gains demonstrate the effectiveness of the Nigerian military’s comprehensive counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency strategy, combining precision combat operations, intelligence-led engagements, and coordinated joint efforts with partners.
He added that “the Operation HADIN KAI remains resolute in its mission to completely defeat terrorism and restore lasting peace and security across the North-East and the pressure on the remaining terrorist elements will continue unabated until they are completely neutralised or forced to surrender”.
For decades, the financial elite of Zurich and London viewed international drug trafficking as a coarse, localized problem. It was a menace measured in street corners, plastic baggies, and gang rivalries. However, a major global sting operation has smashed this illusion. The arrest of Nigerian billionaire Amadi Simon in Switzerland, alongside his female co-conspirators in West Africa, reveals a much deeper issue. It exposes a sophisticated, multi-billion-dollar network where modern fintech, West African drug wealth, and Russian sanctions evasion meet. This case is not just about a single drug bust. It serves as a modern lesson in how easily global finance can be weaponized. When illicit drug cash from European streets can flow smoothly into the Russian financial system through Swiss fintech firms, Western regulators must face a harsh truth: their digital anti-money laundering systems are failing.
The Mirror of the Network
At the center of this web sits Amadi Simon, a high-profile tycoon who lived luxury lives in both Nigeria and Western Europe. While he presented himself as a legitimate businessman, international investigators saw a different reality. They uncovered a massive, globe-spanning drug baron. The network operated with corporate precision: The African Anchor: In Nigeria, female kingpins Jecinta Amara Ikechi and Blessing Ngozi Amadi managed the local footprint. They ran operations in Anambra and Delta states to handle logistics and secure assets. The Swiss Conduit: In Zurich, Sergey Salpanov, a Russian-trained lawyer turned tech founder led Swiss Remit. This fintech firm provided the crucial financial pipeline for the group. Together, these players linked West African networks with European drug markets and eastern financial systems.
Weaponizing the Fintech Frontier
The cartel successfully bypassed traditional global banks by exploiting the gaps in modern financial technology. Traditional banks use slow compliance systems that flag suspicious transactions days after they occur. Fintech apps like Swiss Remit, however, pride themselves on instant, cross-border transfers.
The network exploited this speed to stay ahead of the law. They poured cash into virtual banking platforms through complicit money transfer businesses. Once the dirty paper money became "digital ledger cash," the fintech infrastructure quickly routed it into Russian financial systems or crypto assets.
To hide their digital tracks, the cartel used a strategy known as "nested banking." They passed funds through a confusing maze of foreign exchange businesses, shell companies, and virtual wallets. This completely hid the original owners of the cash. They also broke up large deposits into small amounts using "money mule" accounts opened with fake or stolen IDs. By the time computer algorithms flagged the transactions, the money had already cleared and disappeared into another country.
From Laundromats to Luxury Hotels
When the money returned to Nigeria, it was poured directly into the local economy to look like legitimate profit. The cartel relied heavily on high-end luxury hospitality assets to blend their drug wealth with clean, mainstream commercial cash flows. Following Simon's arrest, Nigeria's National Drug Law Enforcement Agency working closely with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), moved swiftly to seize his multi-billion naira real estate portfolio: Jovi Hotel Asaba: a prime hospitality property used as a major commercial footprint in the Delta State capital. Jovi Hotel and Suites Agbor: a prominent multi-story hotel venture built to absorb massive amounts of cash. Jovi Apartment Abuja: a luxury residential complex in the upscale Mabushi district used as an administrative front. Alongside these physical properties, authorities froze numerous traditional bank accounts and cryptocurrency wallets. These accounts held hundreds of billions of naira in digital ledger cash before they could be moved out of the country.
The Geopolitical Trap
The most alarming aspect of this case for Western security agencies is how organized crime intersects with geopolitics. By routing hundreds of millions in drug wealth directly into Russian financial systems, these networks do more than just clean dirty money. They create alternative pipelines of hard currency into Russia, bypassing traditional banking guardrails and international sanctions. For the Kremlin, cash-heavy networks like Simon’s are highly useful. They offer a steady supply of Western currency that is completely hidden from the eyes of global regulators. This exposes the fatal flaw in the West's current economic defense system. While governments impose strict sanctions on paper, the digital backdoors remain open. A fintech startup in Zurich can accidentally undermine the foreign policy of major world powers, simply by failing to verify the identities of its users.
The Way Forward
Dismantling this network required an extraordinary international coalition, including the NDLEA, the U.S. DEA, and Swiss and Greek federal authorities. This level of cooperation shows that law enforcement can successfully work together across borders. However, chasing criminals after the money has already moved is no longer enough. If governments want to protect the global financial system, they must change how they regulate the fintech sector. Fintech platforms can no longer be allowed to prioritize speed and user growth over basic security. Regulators must enforce strict, real-time identity checks and treat virtual banking platforms with the same scrutiny as traditional banks. Until the digital loopholes are closed, global syndicates will continue to exploit the international financial system—laundering drug money, evading sanctions, and hiding their wealth in plain sight.
In The Spotlight
President Bola Tinubu's Democracy Day address was an exercise in a peculiar form of political optimism: the sort that flourishes most luxuriantly when reality is at its bleakest. One almost admired its audacity.
The address read more like a dispatch from a parallel republic, blissfully detached from the grim realities of the nation he governs. To praise twenty-seven years of unbroken civilian rule is a fine thing for history books, but it offers cold comfort to citizens who cannot afford bread. Nigeria is currently caught in a vice of worsening socio-economic misery and pervasive insecurity, making the president's lofty rhetoric feel not just out of touch, but deeply offensive.
As schoolchildren languish in captivity, as retired generals die in the custody of bandits, as churches and mosques organize national prayers against insecurity, and as vast swathes of rural Nigeria remain subject to the whims of terrorists, kidnappers and armed gangs, the President invited Nigerians to celebrate "the enduring Nigerian spirit" and contemplate a nation moving "from uncertainty to stability". The most striking failure of empathy in the address is the lecture directed at Nigeria’s youth. Tinubu urges them to "build here, code here, work here, and vote here," scolding those who leave as "abandoning ship." This is a rich demand from a political elite whose own children are routinely educated and housed abroad. Young Nigerians are not leaving out of a lack of patriotism. They are fleeing a system that actively stifles their talent, devalues their labor, and threatens their physical safety. To expect the youth to stay and fix a broken ship while the captains lounge in luxury is not leadership; it is rank hypocrisy that stinks to the high Heavens.
Democracy Day is, of course, a suitable occasion for reflection. The heroes of June 12 deserve remembrance. The struggle against military dictatorship remains one of the noblest chapters in Nigeria's modern history. Yet the purpose of democracy is not merely to remember freedom; it is to exercise it. Citizens cannot meaningfully enjoy liberty when they are afraid to travel roads, cultivate farms, attend schools, or sleep in their homes. The President himself inadvertently acknowledged this contradiction when he declared that "democracy without security is a mirage." Quite so. Democratic institutions are empty shells if they cannot provide basic human security. While Tinubu extols the virtues of resolving disagreements in courtrooms rather than through violence, millions of Nigerians face a different kind of daily violence. Wild inflation and a collapsing currency have made feeding a family an act of daily heroism. Bandits, kidnappers, and insurgent groups operate with terrifying freedom across vast swathes of the country. The state's primary duty is to protect its people and their livelihoods. In this duty, the current administration is failing. Celebrating the "ballot" when the state cannot secure the "bourse" or the "boma" is a luxury only the ruling class can afford.
The difficulty is that this statement functions less as a defense of his administration than as its most devastating indictment. For if democracy without security is indeed a mirage, then millions of Nigerians are currently inhabiting precisely such a mirage. The President's solution was familiar: statistics. Thirteen thousand terrorists neutralized. Terror-related deaths down. Thousands recruited into the police and military. Trillions allocated to defense. Governments facing difficult questions often retreat into arithmetic. Numbers possess an attractive quality. They cannot be interrupted. They do not ask follow-up questions. They create the impression of progress without the inconvenience of proving it. Yet Nigerians are not experiencing security through spreadsheets. They experience it through the inability to move freely across their own country. They experience it through ransom payments. They experience it through abandoned villages. They experience it through children kidnapped from schools. They experience it through the extraordinary fact that a retired Major General; a man who once stood near the apex of Nigeria's security establishment could be abducted and die in captivity. If the state could not protect one of its former defenders, what reassurance does it offer everyone else?
There was something especially curious about the President's plea that Nigerians should not "assign blame or point fingers." In ordinary circumstances this might sound statesmanlike. In a democracy it sounds peculiar. Assigning responsibility is, after all, one of the principal functions of democratic government. Citizens elect leaders precisely so that someone may be held accountable when things go wrong. A President asking citizens not to assign blame for a worsening security crisis is rather like a football manager urging supporters not to discuss the scoreline. One suspects the request is made because the scoreline is unfavorable. The address was similarly optimistic about the economy. Reforms have restored credibility. Investment is returning. Revenues are rising. Stability is replacing uncertainty. Perhaps. But the true measure of an economy is not found in ministerial presentations or investment brochures. It is found in kitchens, markets and pay packets. There is a reason the administration repeatedly tells Nigerians that prosperity is coming. It is because prosperity has not yet arrived.
The political danger for Tinubu is not merely that Nigerians are suffering. Nations can endure hardship when they believe sacrifices are producing visible results. The greater danger is that citizens increasingly feel they are being asked to trust official narratives that bear little resemblance to their daily experience. The President spoke eloquently of hope. Hope is a valuable political commodity. But it is not an inexhaustible one. The tragedy of contemporary Nigeria is not that its leaders lack ambition. The speech was full of ambition. It was rich with plans, reforms, initiatives, task forces, strategies and promises. The tragedy is that these aspirations coexist with a mounting sense that the state is losing its monopoly on security in significant parts of the country.
A government may survive economic disappointment. It may survive political controversy. What it cannot indefinitely survive is the perception that it cannot perform the most elementary function of government: protecting citizens from violence. The most revealing line of the speech may not have been the celebration of democracy or the defense of reform. It was the President's appeal to traditional rulers, faith leaders and community heads because "the government cannot do it alone." That was intended as a call for national solidarity. It sounded, instead, like an admission. For governments are not elected merely to join collective efforts. They are elected to lead them. The heroes of June 12 fought so Nigerians could choose their leaders. They did not fight so that elected leaders could explain why they are unable to secure the republic entrusted to them.
The president invites criticism from the press and civil society, calling them the "guardrails of our republic." Yet, these guardrails are being tested to the breaking point by economic mismanagement and official corruption. A democracy cannot be strengthened by speeches alone. It requires a government willing to cut its own waste, secure its borders, and create an environment where business can breathe. Until the Tinubu administration faces these harsh truths, Democracy Day will remain a celebration for the politicians, while the rest of Nigeria continues to suffer. Twenty-seven years after the restoration of democracy, Nigerians deserve more than commemorations of freedom. They deserve the substance of it. And until insecurity ceases to dominate national life, until children can attend school without fear, until citizens can travel without calculating ransom values, until communities no longer depend on prayer as a substitute for protection, the gap between official rhetoric and lived reality will continue to widen. Democracy Day was meant to celebrate how far Nigeria has come. Instead, it served as a reminder of how far it still has to go.
Opinions
In The Spotlight
Yes, Nigeria’s presidential election is seven months away and the campaigns, should there be any, have not begun.
But today, I will tell you how it will play out and who will win.
First, let us recall that Bola Ahmed Tinubu won the contest in 2023 on a nationally embarrassing record-low 26.72% voter turnout.
Of that, he received just 36.61% (8,794,726 votes), the lowest winning share in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. He is ruling Nigeria on less than nine million votes.
That happened because a fragmented opposition split the anti-incumbent majority three ways. But Atiku Abubakar (29.07%), Peter Obi (25.40%) and Rabiu Kwankwaso (6.23%) together secured 60.7% of the vote, collectively outpolling Tinubu by a wide margin.
Here in June 2026, three and a half years later, that fragmentation has worsened. His principal 2023 contestants, Atiku Abubakar and the Obi-Kwankwaso bloc, are again on separate platforms following the collapse of the Ibadan coalition just two months ago, where they had teased unity and collaboration.
Tinubu enters 2027 with a deeply unpopular economic record (peak inflation above 34%, 643% petrol price rise, 141 million in multidimensional poverty), a worsening security crisis 19,980 killed, 12,362 abducted since May 2023 per CSO data), and an Electoral Act 2026 widely criticized for entrenching incumbency.
Nothing exposes the futility of the administration more than the numbers in its own flagship document, PROMISES DELIVERED, published on its third anniversary last month, a self-indictment and that in normal times would be a major liability in an election year.
But the structural advantages of office, access to resources of all forms and sizes, and his All-Progressives Congress control of 31 states and the National Assembly make him a clear favourite.
The biggest factor granting him that status? The fragmented opposition.
But history demonstrates that even fragmented oppositions can win.
In Zambia in 2021, Hakainde Hichilema, in his sixth presidential run and third contest against Edgar Lungu, defeated the incumbent.
His UPND, which was backed by an alliance of 10 opposition parties, “won with 2,810,777 votes to Mr Lungu’s 1,814,201,” the BBC reported: a landslide of more than a million votes.
But Nigerians do not really need to advance beyond their own boundaries to identify a model that has worked. In February 2015, three opposition parties (ACN, CPC, ANPP) and a faction of the ruling PDP merged and became the APC: not a loose alliance, but a genuine party merger.
To understand what happened eight years earlier, consider that Mr Tinubu, the architect of that merger, did not contest the presidential ticket. It went instead to Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner better positioned to deliver the core North vote, balanced by southern running mate Yemi Osinbajo.
Buhari defeated incumbent Goodluck Jonathan by 2.6 million votes, marking the first time an opposition party unseated a ruling party in Nigeria and the country’s first peaceful transfer of power between political parties. The APC achieved the feat with a nine-point margin.
What made that triumph possible were the factors of a single merged platform, a credible candidate with a fixed support base, elite willingness to subordinate personal ambition, the defection of disaffected PDP governors, and a unifying “change” message amid economic discontent and insecurity. It is these same factors that are about to put opposition political egos in Nigeria on trial.
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The APC merger of 2015 and Zambia’s 2021 UPND coalition are excellent models, but only when rivals subordinate personal ambition to a single ticket early, build a genuinely merged party, and deploy parallel vote protection. As I write this article, Nigeria’s opposition has done none of these.
As last week ended, all the major parties appeared to be proceeding as if they have all the time in the world, not only between themselves, but towards APC, while the Obi-Kwankwaso ADC was dangling from the edge of political exclusion.
Translation: the opposition’s greatest enemy is not Tinubu’s machinery but its own dysfunction.
The way forward for Nigeria’s opposition is clear: learn from APC, and from Mr Tinubu, who in 2015 began to play the long game. That game became “Emilokan” in 2023, executed with his “Grab it, snatch it, run with it” philosophy. From the point of view of strategy, it worked.
For today’s opposition, the time for a merger is now gone, but the long game is still available to the opposition if it wants to be a credible, competitive entity now and in the future.
First, and understanding that fragmentation hands victory to the incumbent, they must now pick one candidate behind one party and let the loser’s ego be bought out the way APC did it in 2015. And no, don’t pretend that personal goodwill will settle the ticket. Resolve the presidential question through a pre-announced method that all major camps sign before the process begins. That method should combine two criteria that matter in Nigeria’s system: electability and spread.
Nobody should be pressured merely to “step down for Nigeria,” but they should sign a political contract that makes stepping down survivable.
Concede that Obi (who has the youth/southern energy and the cleaner brand) and Atiku (who has northern reach) cannot both run.
The 2015 template, where Tinubu ceded the ticket to the better-positioned Buhari and took compensating influence, is the proven path. With the primary window now closed, the only practical plan would be to build a state-by-state non-aggression and joint-ticket framework.
Nigeria is a federation, and opposition strategy should behave like one, pooling and pulling together rather than testing against one another everywhere.
A realistic alliance would pair a single presidential ticket with negotiated zoning for Senate, House, governorship, and state-level endorsements in places where one camp is plainly stronger than the others.
The losing camps should receive guaranteed and written compensation, such as running-mate negotiations, campaign leadership roles, and cabinet-allocation principles.
The second element is to invest in building result-protection infrastructure to neutralise the Electoral Act 2026 loophole, learning from Zambia’s parallel vote tabulation. Because Section 60(3) leaves “communication failure” undefined and removes the real-time upload requirement, the opposition cannot rely on INEC’s IReV alone. It should train, equip, and station paid polling agents in as many of the 176,000 polling units as possible, instructed to photograph and transmit signed EC8A forms and to document any “communication failure” in real time; and run an independent parallel vote tabulation with civil-society partners.
The third element is to expand the base and raise turnout.
Tinubu won 2023 on 26.72% turnout; the opposition’s structural advantage is the hungry, angry and disengaged majority, including the newly registered young voters. A unified ticket should:
Prioritise voter mobilisation and PVC collection drives in high-population, low-turnout urban centres.
Craft a single economic-relief and security message.
Lock in a credible North-South balanced ticket to avoid the zoning resentment that has repeatedly fractured both the PDP and the coalition.
The coalition should avoid trying to write a manifesto that reconciles every ideological difference. It is more realistic to agree on a concise covenant built around five or six issues that cut across region, religion, class and party.
Because while Tinubu is deeply vulnerable, he is not weak. One army can defeat him, but not two or three, no matter how powerful they may individually be.