President Goodluck Jonathan's accreditation on Saturday for the presidential election was delayed as three card readers failed to capture his biometric details.
Jonathan, the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, who arrived at the Otazi playground polling centre in his home town, Otueke, Bayelsa State, with his wife, at exactly 9:22 am, could not be accredited till after 10:00 am.
However, the same card reader had accredited some other voters before the President.
While waiting for a fourth card reader, a visibly sweating Jonathan urged Nigerians to be patient and ensure they all voted.
Calling the inability to be accredited a little delay, Jonathan told journalists that the elections nationwide should not be viewed through the perspective of only one incident of failed card reader.
Jonathan said: "President Jonathan is just one person, so if we have problem with one person, as far as the elections is going on well nationally.
"I’m not worried, there might be a delay, my interest is that we conduct a credible election.
"What I want to know is that what is happening across the country."
Jonathan, who also placed a call through to the chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), Professor Attahiru Jega, to find out what is happening nationwide, added: "I want to use this opportunity to commend Nigerians and congratulate them for coming out to elect the next President, Senators and House of Representatives.
"There maybe issues, but this is the first time we are using this technology of voters card and card readers, I just spoke with the INEC Chairman to know what is happening across the country, President Jonathan is just one voter so even if we have problems with my own card, as long as nationally the process is going on well.
"They may be a way to resolve the hitches but my interest is for us to conduct a peaceful and credible elections and i believe that no matter the hitches.
"Nigeria elections is an election that the whole world is interested in and my conviction is that the election should go on."
There had been complaints in various parts of Lagos concerning the challenges being faced by voters as well as the late commencement of the accreditation.
Mr. Ima Niboro,Director General of the News Agency of Nigeria, said he spoke with the Chairman of the INEC Professor Attahiru Jega, who he said gave approval for President Jonathan to be accredited “based on the register”.
Kaduna State :
Sambo's Accreditation Delayed by Late Arrival of Electoral Materials
In Kaduna, officials of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) are yet to arrive Vice President Namadi Sambo's polling unit with election materials
But security men and several aides of the Vice President were already on ground expecting INEC officials to arrive for accreditation of the Vice President.
Already some of the voters who are waiting patiently for INEC officials to come for the accreditation scheduled to commence at 8am are becoming apprehensive and worried as nobody is telling them the reason for the delay.
As at 11:00 am when this story was being filed , it was observed that large number of voters trooped out impressively for the accreditation at the Kabala Doki , Ward 5 polling unit , but the delay in the arrival of election materials is stirring up tension.
However, in other polling units visited within Kaduna metropolis earlier, INEC officials have arrived with materials and have commenced accreditation process.
At WAFF Road, an accredited voted, Emmanuel Kyom told correspondents that he was impressed with quick and orderly manner the card reader and INEC officials are conducting the accreditation exercise.
It was also noticed that heavily armed and battle ready soldiers and policemen were seen at flash points notorious for violence as early as 7am.
For now, the accreditation process in most places visited by Huhuonline.com are peaceful and voters are on queue waiting to for their turn.
Rivers State
The state is under siege as armed men take over the streets of Port Harcourt and other parts of the state, shooting sporadically for two days running.
The Police in Rivers State in obvious connivance with the opposition PDP in the state have embarked on massive arrest of APC stalwarts in the state on trumped up charges.
The State Agent of the APC , Emma Deeyah was yesterday arrested at the state INEC office where he and others went for a briefing by INEC.
At GRA , close to the popular Casablanca area, armed men opened fire shooting in the air while other road users abandoned their vehicles and ran for safety. This was about 6pm yesterday.
At Rumuigbo and Wimpy areas of Obio/Akpor LGA, home of the PDP governorship candidate in the state, Nyesom Wike, there were shootings by armed youths who were seen chanting'PDP'.
In Andoni, the home of the defected Deputy Gov. Tele Ikuru and Prince Uche Secondus, the National Dep Chairman of the PDP, soldiers have taken over the place, intimidating supporters of the State Chairman of APC, Ibiamu Ikanya who is also from the area.
As at 5am today, at Obelle in Emohua LGA, police men were knocking on the doors of APC members to arrest them.
The fear of arrest as well as the presence of these armed men has contributed to the apathy that is witnessed now in the state.
As at press time,, voting materials are yet to arrive in all the 17 wards of Obio/Akpor LGA, home of Nyesom Wike and Tony Okocha who is the candidate of the APC for Obio/Akpor federal constituency. He is Amaechi's Chief of Staff after Wike
Edo State:
Army Stops Journalist from Travelling in Benin, Edo State
Operatives of Nigerian Army have begun what many are describing as the systematic intimidation of Nigerian journalists on Saturday morning in Benin, Edo State.
Journalists who set out to monitor the presidential and national assembly elections were barred from moving in their private vehicles by soldiers who insisted that they could only commute in official cars.
Gabriel Ordia of Galaxy TV and his crew were turned back from travelling to Edo Central senatorial district.
As at the time of filing this report, the Public Relations Officer of 4 Brigade, Nigerian Army in Benin, Captain Abubakar Abdulahi, who was called for intervention, promised to talk to the military operatives.
Some members of the public are however sceptical that the presence of the military operatives could intimidate electorates from coming out to exercise their franchise.
Card Reader: Oyegun, Others Yet to be Accredited
It appears the failure of INEC’s card readers to function is not isolated in Edo south senatorial district alone, as accreditation of eligible voters is underway in Edo central and north part of state.
All polling units in Edo south are yet to be accreditation of eligible voters as at 11:00 am.
National Chairman of All Progressives Congress (APC) Chief John Odigie Oyegun, who arrived at Ward 2 Unit 2 located in the premises of Civil Service Training School, GRA, by 11 am, was told by INEC staff that the the card readers were not functioning.
Addressing the press, Chief Oyegun called on the people to remain calm and wait peacefully, hoping that the situation will be resolved as soon as possible.
“We are keeping an eye on the situation. We will not allow the people to be deprived the opportunity to express their will," Oyegun said.
"I have heard that it is a generalised problem in Edo south. Messing up the process in Edo south will be messing up the result in Edo state.
"If it is a genuine technical problem which we hope will be resolved in a matter of minutes, because Edo south constitute 56 percent of the population of the state."
The process of accreditation was already in progress at Ward 7 Units 1 to 39, located inside Ologbosere Primary School, Upper Sakponba as the card reader issue was already resolved.
Rev. Eta Okon, confirmed that the card reader actually failed to work initially but that the issue has been resolved and he has been accredited.
Enugu & Gombe State : Bomb Blast Rocks Polling Unit in Enugu, Gombe
The entire Enugu State was thrown into panic on Saturday as an improvised explosive devices loaded in the white-coloured Honda car with registration number: KU J971 ABJ went off at a polling unit inside WTC primary school while accreditation of voters commenced on Saturday.
Nobody died in the incident, but it was learnt that the driver of the bomb-laden car got injured, but how he was evacuated from the car remains a mystery to security operatives at the scene.
The security operatives also said there were some unexploded explosives inside the car.
As at the time of filling this report, Police anti-bomb squad were at the scene trying to defuse the remaining unexploded bombs.
Prior to the explosion, it was learnt that the security operatives had defused two bombs at about 9.05 am.
As a result of this incidents, many residents have returned home in order to save their lives as they expressed fears that more of such incidents could be experienced.
Commissioner of Police in the state, Dan Bature, who visited the scene with top officers of the Force and journalists, advised residents not to panic as the Police was in control.
Journalists were however barred from taking photographs of the scene.
In the Gombe incident, it was learnt that the explosive was planted in one of the polling units.
Witnesses said one person was killed in the incident, but it is not known if the victim was a suicide bomber.
APC raises alarm over use of FG facility in Lagos
The APC has raised the alarm over suspicious, election-related activities being carried out at the Federal Government Press on Mobil Road, opposite Coca Cola, at Ajegunle, Lagos. In a statement by its National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, the party said workers at the facility were sent home early on Friday, apparently so it can be made ready for use today (Saturday, March 28th) for a ‘presidency’ assignment. ”A concerned Nigerian alerted us to these developments, and we wonder what a federal government facility can be needed for on election day if it is not part of the facilities designated by INEC for election collation purpose. ”We are therefore compelled to alert the security agencies to urgently put the Federal Government Press at Mobil Road in Lagos under surveillance, with a view to stopping any possible illegal activities that may be going on there on this election day.” APC said with the avowed desperation of the PDP to capture Lagos State at all cost, it cannot be trusted not to resort to underhand activities to manipulate the polls in the state, hence the alarm.
PDP Agent Arrested in Ikorodu For Possessing Spy Cameras
APC Agents Without Tags denied Entry to Polling Area
One of the agents of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP in Igbogbo area of Ikorodu Division has been arrested with a spy camera.
The cameras were hidden in his sunglasses and ball point pens.
Except in exceptional cases authorised by the appropriate quarters, the use of cameras at polling centres goes contrary to electoral laws.
Concerns have been raised by many that this rule is widely being broken.
Meanwhile, agents of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in polling booth 001, Ikorodu are not being allowed in the polling booth because they are not in possession identification tags.
Some of the agents, however are presenting letters of confirmation of their status, but officials insiste that they must produce identification tags.
The same situation is occurring in Cele area of Ikorodu Division where party agents without identifications are also sent out.
As at 10:30 am, accreditation had not commenced in a lot of places in Ikorodu as some of the smart card readers for the accreditation had not been programmed for the process.
In Aga and Borokini areas, all the card readers have failed and accreditation is terribly slow in the area.
Blockage of APC leaders phone lines
The opposition All Progressive Congress (APC) party said the phone lines of key APC leaders have been bombarded with calls from an unknown number with a view to rendering them useless on election day. The calls, which started in the early hours of Saturday, were so persistent that genuine calls could not come in while no calls could be made from the phone lines.
17 card readers stolen in Imo
Security was beefed up at both the INEC headquarters along Port Harcourt Road, Owerri by soldiers who cordoned the area after violence erupted by some youths who protested what they alleged as missing 17 Card Reader Machines in the area.
Borno State
Vehicles, Houses torched as PDP, APC clash, in Borno
Over 250 PDP and APC members and supporters in Borno state clashed at Marama town in Hawul Local Government Area of state, torching several houses and vehicles over an alleged “importation of Boko Haram insurgents” to disrupt elections in the state. The clash was triggered when the PDP supporters alleged that one of the Borno state commissioners stormed southern Borno with armed APC thugs to allegedly disrupt the elections. The two sides clashed with dangerous weapons, burning each other’s’ flags, posters and party buildings, including two Sports Utility Vehicle (SUV) of the council chairman and the alleged Borno commissioner. It took the deployment of soldiers from Biu town to intervene and quell the bloody clash that did not result into loss of lives, as the wounded were rushed to the Federal Medical Centre, Gombe for treatment..
DELTA STATE:
Voting postponed in two LGAs in Delta
Voting was postponed in Ethiope Federal constituency comprising Ethiope East and West Local Government Areas of Delta State because of inadequate supply of voting materials. The distribution of voting materials by the Warri office of INEC ended at 8.20am.
EBONYI STATE:
Man arrested for Distributing Stolen PVCs in Ebonyi
A man identified as Ozoemena Odenta was arrested by police in Ikwo Division of Ebonyi state for allegedly distributing stolen PVCs in Ekawoke ward in the area. The suspect was accused to have stolen the cards, numbering over 300, from INEC officials during the last distribution exercise and disappeared, only to resurface on the election day with the cards, which he distributed based on his discretion to his loyalists.
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More than 76 ISWAP terrorists have abandoned their enclaves and surrendered to troops within the North-East theatre of operations as part of the Joint Task Force (North East), Operation HADIN KAI (OPHK), and continued operational successes.
The North East geopolitical zone comprises six states: Adamawa, Bauchi, Borno, Gombe, Taraba, and Yobe.
In a statement by the Acting Military Information Officer, Headquarters Joint Task Force North East Operation Hadin Kai, Captain Mohammed Goni, revealed that among those who surrendered were key members of the terrorist network, due to relentless military pressure.
“The development highlights the devastating impact of the sustained offensive by Operation HADIN KAI, which continues to dismantle terrorist strongholds, disrupt command and logistics structures, and deny the insurgents freedom of action across the theatre”.
“Persistent military operations have continued to degrade the terrorists’ combat capabilities while eroding confidence within their ranks and leadership. Within the last week alone, a total of 76 terrorist foot soldiers with some families surrendered to troops”
“They are currently in a secure location undergoing profiling, debriefing, and other established procedures in accordance with extant operational protocols,” the statement reads in part.
According to Captain Goni, the operational gains demonstrate the effectiveness of the Nigerian military’s comprehensive counter-terrorism and counter-insurgency strategy, combining precision combat operations, intelligence-led engagements, and coordinated joint efforts with partners.
He added that “the Operation HADIN KAI remains resolute in its mission to completely defeat terrorism and restore lasting peace and security across the North-East and the pressure on the remaining terrorist elements will continue unabated until they are completely neutralised or forced to surrender”.
For decades, the financial elite of Zurich and London viewed international drug trafficking as a coarse, localized problem. It was a menace measured in street corners, plastic baggies, and gang rivalries. However, a major global sting operation has smashed this illusion. The arrest of Nigerian billionaire Amadi Simon in Switzerland, alongside his female co-conspirators in West Africa, reveals a much deeper issue. It exposes a sophisticated, multi-billion-dollar network where modern fintech, West African drug wealth, and Russian sanctions evasion meet. This case is not just about a single drug bust. It serves as a modern lesson in how easily global finance can be weaponized. When illicit drug cash from European streets can flow smoothly into the Russian financial system through Swiss fintech firms, Western regulators must face a harsh truth: their digital anti-money laundering systems are failing.
The Mirror of the Network
At the center of this web sits Amadi Simon, a high-profile tycoon who lived luxury lives in both Nigeria and Western Europe. While he presented himself as a legitimate businessman, international investigators saw a different reality. They uncovered a massive, globe-spanning drug baron. The network operated with corporate precision: The African Anchor: In Nigeria, female kingpins Jecinta Amara Ikechi and Blessing Ngozi Amadi managed the local footprint. They ran operations in Anambra and Delta states to handle logistics and secure assets. The Swiss Conduit: In Zurich, Sergey Salpanov, a Russian-trained lawyer turned tech founder led Swiss Remit. This fintech firm provided the crucial financial pipeline for the group. Together, these players linked West African networks with European drug markets and eastern financial systems.
Weaponizing the Fintech Frontier
The cartel successfully bypassed traditional global banks by exploiting the gaps in modern financial technology. Traditional banks use slow compliance systems that flag suspicious transactions days after they occur. Fintech apps like Swiss Remit, however, pride themselves on instant, cross-border transfers.
The network exploited this speed to stay ahead of the law. They poured cash into virtual banking platforms through complicit money transfer businesses. Once the dirty paper money became "digital ledger cash," the fintech infrastructure quickly routed it into Russian financial systems or crypto assets.
To hide their digital tracks, the cartel used a strategy known as "nested banking." They passed funds through a confusing maze of foreign exchange businesses, shell companies, and virtual wallets. This completely hid the original owners of the cash. They also broke up large deposits into small amounts using "money mule" accounts opened with fake or stolen IDs. By the time computer algorithms flagged the transactions, the money had already cleared and disappeared into another country.
From Laundromats to Luxury Hotels
When the money returned to Nigeria, it was poured directly into the local economy to look like legitimate profit. The cartel relied heavily on high-end luxury hospitality assets to blend their drug wealth with clean, mainstream commercial cash flows. Following Simon's arrest, Nigeria's National Drug Law Enforcement Agency working closely with the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA), moved swiftly to seize his multi-billion naira real estate portfolio: Jovi Hotel Asaba: a prime hospitality property used as a major commercial footprint in the Delta State capital. Jovi Hotel and Suites Agbor: a prominent multi-story hotel venture built to absorb massive amounts of cash. Jovi Apartment Abuja: a luxury residential complex in the upscale Mabushi district used as an administrative front. Alongside these physical properties, authorities froze numerous traditional bank accounts and cryptocurrency wallets. These accounts held hundreds of billions of naira in digital ledger cash before they could be moved out of the country.
The Geopolitical Trap
The most alarming aspect of this case for Western security agencies is how organized crime intersects with geopolitics. By routing hundreds of millions in drug wealth directly into Russian financial systems, these networks do more than just clean dirty money. They create alternative pipelines of hard currency into Russia, bypassing traditional banking guardrails and international sanctions. For the Kremlin, cash-heavy networks like Simon’s are highly useful. They offer a steady supply of Western currency that is completely hidden from the eyes of global regulators. This exposes the fatal flaw in the West's current economic defense system. While governments impose strict sanctions on paper, the digital backdoors remain open. A fintech startup in Zurich can accidentally undermine the foreign policy of major world powers, simply by failing to verify the identities of its users.
The Way Forward
Dismantling this network required an extraordinary international coalition, including the NDLEA, the U.S. DEA, and Swiss and Greek federal authorities. This level of cooperation shows that law enforcement can successfully work together across borders. However, chasing criminals after the money has already moved is no longer enough. If governments want to protect the global financial system, they must change how they regulate the fintech sector. Fintech platforms can no longer be allowed to prioritize speed and user growth over basic security. Regulators must enforce strict, real-time identity checks and treat virtual banking platforms with the same scrutiny as traditional banks. Until the digital loopholes are closed, global syndicates will continue to exploit the international financial system—laundering drug money, evading sanctions, and hiding their wealth in plain sight.
In The Spotlight
President Bola Tinubu's Democracy Day address was an exercise in a peculiar form of political optimism: the sort that flourishes most luxuriantly when reality is at its bleakest. One almost admired its audacity.
The address read more like a dispatch from a parallel republic, blissfully detached from the grim realities of the nation he governs. To praise twenty-seven years of unbroken civilian rule is a fine thing for history books, but it offers cold comfort to citizens who cannot afford bread. Nigeria is currently caught in a vice of worsening socio-economic misery and pervasive insecurity, making the president's lofty rhetoric feel not just out of touch, but deeply offensive.
As schoolchildren languish in captivity, as retired generals die in the custody of bandits, as churches and mosques organize national prayers against insecurity, and as vast swathes of rural Nigeria remain subject to the whims of terrorists, kidnappers and armed gangs, the President invited Nigerians to celebrate "the enduring Nigerian spirit" and contemplate a nation moving "from uncertainty to stability". The most striking failure of empathy in the address is the lecture directed at Nigeria’s youth. Tinubu urges them to "build here, code here, work here, and vote here," scolding those who leave as "abandoning ship." This is a rich demand from a political elite whose own children are routinely educated and housed abroad. Young Nigerians are not leaving out of a lack of patriotism. They are fleeing a system that actively stifles their talent, devalues their labor, and threatens their physical safety. To expect the youth to stay and fix a broken ship while the captains lounge in luxury is not leadership; it is rank hypocrisy that stinks to the high Heavens.
Democracy Day is, of course, a suitable occasion for reflection. The heroes of June 12 deserve remembrance. The struggle against military dictatorship remains one of the noblest chapters in Nigeria's modern history. Yet the purpose of democracy is not merely to remember freedom; it is to exercise it. Citizens cannot meaningfully enjoy liberty when they are afraid to travel roads, cultivate farms, attend schools, or sleep in their homes. The President himself inadvertently acknowledged this contradiction when he declared that "democracy without security is a mirage." Quite so. Democratic institutions are empty shells if they cannot provide basic human security. While Tinubu extols the virtues of resolving disagreements in courtrooms rather than through violence, millions of Nigerians face a different kind of daily violence. Wild inflation and a collapsing currency have made feeding a family an act of daily heroism. Bandits, kidnappers, and insurgent groups operate with terrifying freedom across vast swathes of the country. The state's primary duty is to protect its people and their livelihoods. In this duty, the current administration is failing. Celebrating the "ballot" when the state cannot secure the "bourse" or the "boma" is a luxury only the ruling class can afford.
The difficulty is that this statement functions less as a defense of his administration than as its most devastating indictment. For if democracy without security is indeed a mirage, then millions of Nigerians are currently inhabiting precisely such a mirage. The President's solution was familiar: statistics. Thirteen thousand terrorists neutralized. Terror-related deaths down. Thousands recruited into the police and military. Trillions allocated to defense. Governments facing difficult questions often retreat into arithmetic. Numbers possess an attractive quality. They cannot be interrupted. They do not ask follow-up questions. They create the impression of progress without the inconvenience of proving it. Yet Nigerians are not experiencing security through spreadsheets. They experience it through the inability to move freely across their own country. They experience it through ransom payments. They experience it through abandoned villages. They experience it through children kidnapped from schools. They experience it through the extraordinary fact that a retired Major General; a man who once stood near the apex of Nigeria's security establishment could be abducted and die in captivity. If the state could not protect one of its former defenders, what reassurance does it offer everyone else?
There was something especially curious about the President's plea that Nigerians should not "assign blame or point fingers." In ordinary circumstances this might sound statesmanlike. In a democracy it sounds peculiar. Assigning responsibility is, after all, one of the principal functions of democratic government. Citizens elect leaders precisely so that someone may be held accountable when things go wrong. A President asking citizens not to assign blame for a worsening security crisis is rather like a football manager urging supporters not to discuss the scoreline. One suspects the request is made because the scoreline is unfavorable. The address was similarly optimistic about the economy. Reforms have restored credibility. Investment is returning. Revenues are rising. Stability is replacing uncertainty. Perhaps. But the true measure of an economy is not found in ministerial presentations or investment brochures. It is found in kitchens, markets and pay packets. There is a reason the administration repeatedly tells Nigerians that prosperity is coming. It is because prosperity has not yet arrived.
The political danger for Tinubu is not merely that Nigerians are suffering. Nations can endure hardship when they believe sacrifices are producing visible results. The greater danger is that citizens increasingly feel they are being asked to trust official narratives that bear little resemblance to their daily experience. The President spoke eloquently of hope. Hope is a valuable political commodity. But it is not an inexhaustible one. The tragedy of contemporary Nigeria is not that its leaders lack ambition. The speech was full of ambition. It was rich with plans, reforms, initiatives, task forces, strategies and promises. The tragedy is that these aspirations coexist with a mounting sense that the state is losing its monopoly on security in significant parts of the country.
A government may survive economic disappointment. It may survive political controversy. What it cannot indefinitely survive is the perception that it cannot perform the most elementary function of government: protecting citizens from violence. The most revealing line of the speech may not have been the celebration of democracy or the defense of reform. It was the President's appeal to traditional rulers, faith leaders and community heads because "the government cannot do it alone." That was intended as a call for national solidarity. It sounded, instead, like an admission. For governments are not elected merely to join collective efforts. They are elected to lead them. The heroes of June 12 fought so Nigerians could choose their leaders. They did not fight so that elected leaders could explain why they are unable to secure the republic entrusted to them.
The president invites criticism from the press and civil society, calling them the "guardrails of our republic." Yet, these guardrails are being tested to the breaking point by economic mismanagement and official corruption. A democracy cannot be strengthened by speeches alone. It requires a government willing to cut its own waste, secure its borders, and create an environment where business can breathe. Until the Tinubu administration faces these harsh truths, Democracy Day will remain a celebration for the politicians, while the rest of Nigeria continues to suffer. Twenty-seven years after the restoration of democracy, Nigerians deserve more than commemorations of freedom. They deserve the substance of it. And until insecurity ceases to dominate national life, until children can attend school without fear, until citizens can travel without calculating ransom values, until communities no longer depend on prayer as a substitute for protection, the gap between official rhetoric and lived reality will continue to widen. Democracy Day was meant to celebrate how far Nigeria has come. Instead, it served as a reminder of how far it still has to go.
Opinions
In The Spotlight
Yes, Nigeria’s presidential election is seven months away and the campaigns, should there be any, have not begun.
But today, I will tell you how it will play out and who will win.
First, let us recall that Bola Ahmed Tinubu won the contest in 2023 on a nationally embarrassing record-low 26.72% voter turnout.
Of that, he received just 36.61% (8,794,726 votes), the lowest winning share in Nigeria’s Fourth Republic. He is ruling Nigeria on less than nine million votes.
That happened because a fragmented opposition split the anti-incumbent majority three ways. But Atiku Abubakar (29.07%), Peter Obi (25.40%) and Rabiu Kwankwaso (6.23%) together secured 60.7% of the vote, collectively outpolling Tinubu by a wide margin.
Here in June 2026, three and a half years later, that fragmentation has worsened. His principal 2023 contestants, Atiku Abubakar and the Obi-Kwankwaso bloc, are again on separate platforms following the collapse of the Ibadan coalition just two months ago, where they had teased unity and collaboration.
Tinubu enters 2027 with a deeply unpopular economic record (peak inflation above 34%, 643% petrol price rise, 141 million in multidimensional poverty), a worsening security crisis 19,980 killed, 12,362 abducted since May 2023 per CSO data), and an Electoral Act 2026 widely criticized for entrenching incumbency.
Nothing exposes the futility of the administration more than the numbers in its own flagship document, PROMISES DELIVERED, published on its third anniversary last month, a self-indictment and that in normal times would be a major liability in an election year.
But the structural advantages of office, access to resources of all forms and sizes, and his All-Progressives Congress control of 31 states and the National Assembly make him a clear favourite.
The biggest factor granting him that status? The fragmented opposition.
But history demonstrates that even fragmented oppositions can win.
In Zambia in 2021, Hakainde Hichilema, in his sixth presidential run and third contest against Edgar Lungu, defeated the incumbent.
His UPND, which was backed by an alliance of 10 opposition parties, “won with 2,810,777 votes to Mr Lungu’s 1,814,201,” the BBC reported: a landslide of more than a million votes.
But Nigerians do not really need to advance beyond their own boundaries to identify a model that has worked. In February 2015, three opposition parties (ACN, CPC, ANPP) and a faction of the ruling PDP merged and became the APC: not a loose alliance, but a genuine party merger.
To understand what happened eight years earlier, consider that Mr Tinubu, the architect of that merger, did not contest the presidential ticket. It went instead to Muhammadu Buhari, a northerner better positioned to deliver the core North vote, balanced by southern running mate Yemi Osinbajo.
Buhari defeated incumbent Goodluck Jonathan by 2.6 million votes, marking the first time an opposition party unseated a ruling party in Nigeria and the country’s first peaceful transfer of power between political parties. The APC achieved the feat with a nine-point margin.
What made that triumph possible were the factors of a single merged platform, a credible candidate with a fixed support base, elite willingness to subordinate personal ambition, the defection of disaffected PDP governors, and a unifying “change” message amid economic discontent and insecurity. It is these same factors that are about to put opposition political egos in Nigeria on trial.
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The APC merger of 2015 and Zambia’s 2021 UPND coalition are excellent models, but only when rivals subordinate personal ambition to a single ticket early, build a genuinely merged party, and deploy parallel vote protection. As I write this article, Nigeria’s opposition has done none of these.
As last week ended, all the major parties appeared to be proceeding as if they have all the time in the world, not only between themselves, but towards APC, while the Obi-Kwankwaso ADC was dangling from the edge of political exclusion.
Translation: the opposition’s greatest enemy is not Tinubu’s machinery but its own dysfunction.
The way forward for Nigeria’s opposition is clear: learn from APC, and from Mr Tinubu, who in 2015 began to play the long game. That game became “Emilokan” in 2023, executed with his “Grab it, snatch it, run with it” philosophy. From the point of view of strategy, it worked.
For today’s opposition, the time for a merger is now gone, but the long game is still available to the opposition if it wants to be a credible, competitive entity now and in the future.
First, and understanding that fragmentation hands victory to the incumbent, they must now pick one candidate behind one party and let the loser’s ego be bought out the way APC did it in 2015. And no, don’t pretend that personal goodwill will settle the ticket. Resolve the presidential question through a pre-announced method that all major camps sign before the process begins. That method should combine two criteria that matter in Nigeria’s system: electability and spread.
Nobody should be pressured merely to “step down for Nigeria,” but they should sign a political contract that makes stepping down survivable.
Concede that Obi (who has the youth/southern energy and the cleaner brand) and Atiku (who has northern reach) cannot both run.
The 2015 template, where Tinubu ceded the ticket to the better-positioned Buhari and took compensating influence, is the proven path. With the primary window now closed, the only practical plan would be to build a state-by-state non-aggression and joint-ticket framework.
Nigeria is a federation, and opposition strategy should behave like one, pooling and pulling together rather than testing against one another everywhere.
A realistic alliance would pair a single presidential ticket with negotiated zoning for Senate, House, governorship, and state-level endorsements in places where one camp is plainly stronger than the others.
The losing camps should receive guaranteed and written compensation, such as running-mate negotiations, campaign leadership roles, and cabinet-allocation principles.
The second element is to invest in building result-protection infrastructure to neutralise the Electoral Act 2026 loophole, learning from Zambia’s parallel vote tabulation. Because Section 60(3) leaves “communication failure” undefined and removes the real-time upload requirement, the opposition cannot rely on INEC’s IReV alone. It should train, equip, and station paid polling agents in as many of the 176,000 polling units as possible, instructed to photograph and transmit signed EC8A forms and to document any “communication failure” in real time; and run an independent parallel vote tabulation with civil-society partners.
The third element is to expand the base and raise turnout.
Tinubu won 2023 on 26.72% turnout; the opposition’s structural advantage is the hungry, angry and disengaged majority, including the newly registered young voters. A unified ticket should:
Prioritise voter mobilisation and PVC collection drives in high-population, low-turnout urban centres.
Craft a single economic-relief and security message.
Lock in a credible North-South balanced ticket to avoid the zoning resentment that has repeatedly fractured both the PDP and the coalition.
The coalition should avoid trying to write a manifesto that reconciles every ideological difference. It is more realistic to agree on a concise covenant built around five or six issues that cut across region, religion, class and party.
Because while Tinubu is deeply vulnerable, he is not weak. One army can defeat him, but not two or three, no matter how powerful they may individually be.